Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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630 FXUS63 KBIS 230530 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance of rain showers (20 to 40 percent) on Monday, with chances pushing east Monday night. - Gradual warming trend Tuesday through Thursday, with dry weather forecast. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Quiet weather continues over western and central North Dakota. The aforementioned upper level cloud deck has all but blanketed the forecast area by this update. Otherwise, winds remain generally light from 5 to 10 mph and out of the south. No major updates were required, as the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 941 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Upper level clouds continue to increase across the area. All forecast elements remain on track. UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The forecast for tonight remains on track. Upper level clouds will expand across western and central North Dakota tonight, ahead of a developing mid level wave now crossing the Canadian Rockies. This feature will bring a chance of showers to the local area during the day Monday as it interacts with an eastward moving frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current surface analysis places high pressure from the lee of the Central Rockies northeastward through the Red River Valley of the North. Trough noted to the lee of the Northern Rockies. Upper level analysis places west-northwest flow over our area with a modest trough noted over the Canadian Rockies. A few weak waves moving through the flow over our area are resulting in a few clouds over our northeast, otherwise high clouds continue to move along with the upper level flow. For the rest of this afternoon into tonight, quiet weather will continue into this evening, but clouds will start to be on the increase, especially as we get later in the night, as the aforementioned upper trough over the Canadian Rockies progresses east and deepens as it pushes into the Plains. On Monday, trough continues to push east and deepen as it pushes over the Dakotas. This will result in some showers developing and passing over the area through the day. For now have kept chances modest (20-40 percent), but have gone higher than current NBM which just started picking up on the chances, while CAMs seem to be more aggressive. Wave gradually departs in the evening with chances diminishing from west to east. Pacific ridge then gradually makes its way east through mid- week, resulting in a warming trend and quiet weather. By Thursday, many locations should be well into the 80s, with NBM seeming quite consistent and not showing much of a spread. Ridge axis passes east going into the weekend, but systems passing through the flow appear to hold to the north at this point. Therefore, will continue dry forecast with seasonably mild temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Generally VFR ceilings and visibility are anticipated at all terminals throughout the 06Z TAF period. Later this morning, a band of showers and mid level clouds will move in from the west along a weak cold front, sweeping across North Dakota through the afternoon and evening hours. These showers are anticipated to be fairly light, with no visibility reductions expected at this time. Showers will generally clear from west to east Monday evening. Winds are generally light and out of the south, but will turn to the northwest while strengthening to 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots as the cold front moves in during the late morning and afternoon hours. Winds will then diminish and become west northwesterly through the evening and then end of the TAF period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Adam/NH DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...Adam