345
FXUS63 KBIS 060221
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
921 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to windy conditions to remain through Thursday, mainly
  in northern and eastern portions, with gusts to 50 mph.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures with mostly dry
  weather through this weekend.

- A warming trend is looking more likely next week.
 &&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 903 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Winds continue to diminish this evening and the Wind Highlights
have been allowed to expire. Otherwise quiet conditions are
expected tonight as shower activity has dissipated. Additional
showers dropping southeast across southeast Saskatchewan and
southern Manitoba could clip northeast portions of the forecast
area late tonight but any precip would be negligible. Overnight
lows are expected to drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. If
winds drop off late tonight, wouldn`t be surprised to see some
lower 40s with possibly even some upper 30s, southwest and far
south central given the dry atmosphere in place.

UPDATE
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Very strong west to northwest winds continue across the forecast
area late this afternoon. Max wind gusts this hour were
generally in the 45 to 55 mph range. Earlier today we had a
couple above 65 mph (67 at Garrison and 68 30W Crosby). It will
remain windy early this evening with winds diminishing pretty
quickly most areas after 8 PM CDT. Isolated showers tracking
southeast through the area will continue to diminish early this
evening. Minor updates to sky cover, otherwise no significant
changes. Updated text products will be sent shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Stacked low in southern Canada continues to bring strong winds
across the area this afternoon. A 700 mb jet max has been the
focus for the strongest winds so far today. This has been in
northwestern North Dakota, although is forecast to move across
the north through the evening mainly along and north of the
Highway 2 corridor. Thus have issued a High Wind Warning for
these areas through much of this evening. Sustained winds in
these area look to be over 40 mph, while wind gusts of 55 to 65
MPH could be found. The remainder of the CWA still sees enough
winds to maintain the Wind Advisory with gusts to 55 MPH and
perhaps an isolated 60 MPH gust. The overall wave could still
bring an isolated shower through this evening across the CWA.
Instability still looks to be low an on a diminishing trend thus
left out mention of thunder through this evening. Strong winds
will remain aloft through tonight, although nocturnal inversions
should help diminish winds overnight. Dry conditions are also
expected with low temperatures in the mid 40s west to mid 50s
east. Strong northwest flow looks to linger for Thursday as the
upper low moves eastward. The gradient lessens slightly at the
surface, with the upper level winds also diminishing through the
day. Before this fully diminishes there still could be some near
to advisory level winds in the north and east, especially if
some the afternoon winds are higher than current NBM forecast.
Will let the current wind highlight play out then evaluate the
need for an advisory for tomorrow. Otherwise this northwest flow
for tomorrow looks dry with high temperatures in the mid 60s to
mid 70s for most areas. Friday then looks to start out in a
zonal flow pattern. A cold front could then push out of Canada
and across the area in the afternoon and evening. Perhaps some
breezy winds and a few showers and thunderstorms could be found
as a result. High temperatures could be near normal ahead of
this front as well.

This weekend still has a little bit of variability and dependent
on where a cut off low and brief ridging sets up across the
region. Areas closer to this low would be cooler with a chance
of showers, while areas more in the ridge would be slightly
warmer with less chances for precipitation. Right now the NBM
looks to favor cooler than normal temperatures this week with
limited chances for precipitation. Clusters then indicate either
ridging or flat ridging to start next week. This would indicate
a warming pattern may return to the area, which is also
included in the NBM forecast temperatures. More flat ridging
across the area could return chances for showers and
thunderstorms. NBM has at least slight PoPs right now to account
for this. CSU-MLP is currently showing minimal chances for
severe weather to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Very strong winds diminish this evening then pick up again
Thursday.

West to northwest winds 35 to 45 mph with higher gusts will
diminish this evening. Winds will increase again on Thursday,
especially over central and into eastern ND. breezy conditions
in the west. LLWS at KBIS late tonight as surface winds diminish
and winds aloft remain strong. Other than the winds, VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the 00Z TAF
period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...Anglin/Besson/TWH