093
FXUS63 KBIS 061126
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
626 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of windy conditions is on tap for today,
  especially northwest, central, and east. Sustained northwest
  winds up to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph are expected.

- A weak wave will bring a slight chance of showers to the north
  central and James River Valley on Friday. An isolated
  thunderstorm will be possible over the James River Valley in
  the late afternoon or early evening.

- Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions through the weekend
  with near to slightly below normal temperatures. A better
  chance for precipitation then returns Monday afternoon and
  evening.

- Much warmer temperatures will be possible by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds have been a bit slower to ramp up this morning than
originally forecast, which is not all together unusual. The
Wind Advisory still looks to be in good shape later this
morning and through the day. Otherwise, it`s a quiet and clear
morning across western and central North Dakota. No major
changes were needed for this update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Western and central North Dakota sits under the influence of
northwest flow aloft with an upper low to the east centered over
southwest Ontario, and a broad western US ridge to the west. A
strong surface pressure gradient will keep winds elevated
through much of the short term; increasing once again through
the morning and afternoon. There is no strong pressure bubble or
cold air advection signal in the various models, but forecast
soundings do suggest inverted V profiles with a deep mixed
layer. RAP and NAM soundings suggest the potential for 40 to 50
knots at the top of the mixed layer so it seems likely that we
will see some sustained northwest winds to 30 mph and gusts to
50 mph. It is worth noting that the EFI suggests the potential
for borderline High Wind Warning criteria over our northeast
but will hold off for now as forecast soundings are just not
showing that potential at the moment. What we did decide to do
is put out a new Wind Advisory for portions of the northwest,
the central, and the east from 13z to 00z. Winds should start to
diminish quickly as we approach the early evening hours and
sunset.

Most guidance is now suggesting that the upper flow will flatten
a bit on Friday as a weak wave rides down the ridge. This will
lead to low chances for showers (20 to 30 percent) over the
north central and into the James River Valley. While instability
will be limited, we may see enough buoyancy across the south
for a stray thunderstorm or two in the late afternoon or early
evening over the James River Valley. Friday will also see the
return of some warmer temperatures with highs across the
southwest and south central forecast to be back into the mid 70s
to lower 80s. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

Low amplitude ridging will move across the state on Saturday as
some low rain shower chances linger across the north cental and
northeast. Highs will be similar on Saturday and Sunday, ranging
from the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Sunday night, we start to
transition back into southwest flow aloft with the approach of
the next wave. While we still have a ways to go regarding
specifics, the global models and ensembles are suggesting the
potential for some decent instability/shear overlap on Monday.
Thus, there may be a window for a few strong to severe storms
depending on how the pattern evolves through the weekend and
into next week.

Monday may also mark the beginning of our next major warmup.
Monday`s highs are forecast to range from the lower 70s to the
lower 80s and then by Wednesday, NBM output shows widespread
highs ranging from the upper 70s to the upper 80s. It should be
noted that substantial spread is introduced in the NBM
temperature forecast starting Sunday, likely illustrating the
uncertainty regarding how the eventual pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all sites.
Northwest winds will increase again this morning and through the
afternoon hours, diminishing in the evening. The strongest winds
will be across the northwest, central, and east. Sustained winds
up to 30 mph will be possible with gusts to 50 mph.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...ZH
AVIATION...ZH