071
FXUS63 KBIS 251950
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
250 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warming trend will continue with widespread highs in the
  80s and a few 90s on Thursday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Thursday
  over a good portion of western and south central North Dakota,
  including the James River Valley.

- Dry conditions with temperatures at or above normal continue
  through the weekend. Turning cooler Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently, surface high pressure was located over the eastern
Dakotas and Minnesota with low pressure over southern Alberta
Canada and troughing in the lee of the Northern Rockies.
Southerly winds are increasing over eastern Montana and the
western Dakotas. In the upper atmosphere a strong upper level
ridge was situated over the central portion of the country and
extending into central Canada.

For tonight, a moderate southerly flow will spread east across
the state with increasing south winds aloft. We have mentioned
LLWS at all TAF sites tonight due to the strong winds aloft. It
may be breezy at times overnight, especially in elevated exposed
locations. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Thursday will be quite warm especially over portions of southwest
and south central North Dakota, where highs will climb into the
90s. The strongest winds will shift into central ND by Thursday
afternoon. Currently bufkit soundings indicated sustained winds
of around 25 mph will be possible with gust into the 35 to 40
mph range. Presently winds look to be near or just below
advisory criteria Thursday afternoon over the James River Valley
and will not issue an advisory, but will pass this along to the
overnight shift as and let them evaluate as later data arrives.
It will be breezy to windy along and east of the Highway 83
corridor with winds out of the south to southeast.

A cold front will move through western and into central ND
Thursday afternoon. Winds will increase over western ND behind
the front Thursday afternoon. Winds will be lightest Thursday
afternoon over central North Dakota as they shift from southeast
to southwest and eventually northwest. More on this below in the
Fire Weather section.

It will be cooler on Friday with temperatures ranging from the
lower 70s Turtle Mountains to the mid 80s southwest. It will
also be less windy, but it may be a little breezy (from the
southwest) Friday afternoon over northwest ND. No precipitation
is expected with the Frontal passage Thursday or behind the
Front on Friday.

Dry conditions will also continue through the weekend and into
early next week. Temperatures will warm again through the
weekend with an other warm and breezy to windy day on Sunday.
A mostly dry cold front ushers in cooler air to begin the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. LLWS is
expected tonight at all TAF sites.

Clear skies expected through most of the 18Z TAF period. Perhaps
some increasing high level cloudiness approaching from the
northwest towards the end of the TAF period. Southerly winds
will increase today and this evening from west to east. This
evening as surface winds diminish and strong southerly winds
continue just above the surface LLWS is expected to spread west
to east across the forecast area and is included in all TAF
sites. Southerly flow begins to shift west over the Western TAF
sites of KXWA and KDIK Thursday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A cold front will move through western and into central North
Dakota by Thursday afternoon. Behind the cold front northwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph will move into western North Dakota. It
will be slightly more humid behind the cold front, especially
farther to the north, while the strongest winds behind the front
will be over northwest ND, compared to the southwest. Therefore
we expect near critical fire weather conditions over much of the
western third of North Dakota Thursday. Because the strongest
winds Thursday afternoon (northwest) do not match up with the
lowest humidities (southwest) and grasses have not completely
cured, we do not anticipate a Red Flag Warning at this time.
However, we will continue to monitor as winds and Humidity
values may worsen, necessitating an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning.

To the east of the cold front, over the James River Valley and
into eastern North Dakota, strong south winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gust possibly up to 40 mph will develop by Thursday
afternoon. Although humidities will be higher over the James
River Valley (25 to 35 percent) winds will be strong enough to
necessitate a mention of near critical fire weather conditions.

In between the west and the James River Valley, the cold front
will be moving over central North Dakota Thursday afternoon. The
far south central may see some of the lowest afternoon
humidities Thursday afternoon, but winds here are not expected
to be strong as the front moves across this area during the
afternoon. However humidities will be low enough with some
breezy afternoon conditions that near critical fire weather
conditions are warranted.

Portions of central ND east of the Highway 83 corridor into the
Turtle Mountains and the Devils Lake Basin will see lighter
winds and high enough humidities that fire weather concerns will
be minimal.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TWH
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...TWH