Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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576 FXUS63 KBIS 231947 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers continue to push east over the area this afternoon, moving off to the east this evening. - Gradual warming trend starting Tuesday will bring widespread highs in the 80s and a few 90s by Thursday. - With the exception of today into this evening, dry conditions expected through the rest of the work week going into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Current surface analysis places low over west-central Manitoba with trough dropping down through the Dakotas. Upper level analysis places trough passing through the Northern Plains, with ridging over the west coast. Area of light showers affiliated with the surface and upper level trough continue to pass trough our area, but have been gradually diminishing on the back side. For the rest of this afternoon into this evening. Showers continue to slide to the east, and are expected to exit into eastern North Dakota this evening. The showers have been quite light, with most reports coming in at only a few hundreths. Skies will then clear out overnight with the departure of the showers. Pacific ridge then makes its way eastward over the Rockies and into the plains by mid-week. This will result in a warming trend along with continued quiet weather. By Thursday, most locations should see highs in the 80s, which will be about 15 degrees above normal. A short wave pushes through the ridge late Thursday which may result in a bit of cooling, but right now forecast looks to remain dry. Next chances for precipitation may arrive late in the weekend but models are showing some differences with a solution at this time, so chances remain low. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to move west to east over North Dakota this afternoon and evening. Visibility restrictions remain minimal with these showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JJS AVIATION...JJS