Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
913
FGUS73 KBIS 271832
ESFBIS
NDC009-013-023-049-069-075-079-101-291800-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
132 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...
This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Souris River Basin
of North Dakota, covering the period of 30 June, 2025 through 28
September, 2025.
The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting the
local hydrology. The second section gives the current and historical
risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble Streamflow Forecast
model of the National Weather Service. The third section gives the
current probabilities for reaching flood stage at the listed
forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section covers the risk
of the river sites falling below the listed stages.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
All forecast locations are near to below normal flood risk for this
time of the year. In general the risks below are primarily
associated with the summer severe thunderstorm season where
localized heavy rains tend to create more isolated examples of
problematic high water than widespread flooding along the Souris
River itself.
...Snowpack Conditions...
There is no snow remaining in North Dakota at this time, nor is
there any snow in the Saskatchewan portion of the Souris River Basin.
...Current Drought Conditions...
Recent rainfall has been very impactful on the conditions that
influence drought designations. In short, drought conditions have
largely improved across North Dakota with the exception of the very
northeastern corner where drought conditions have been slowly
worsening. At this point though, only a small portion of the Souris
River Basin including the Turtle Mountain area within North Dakota
is under a D0 (Abnormally Dry) drought designation.
...Reservoirs and Natural Wetlands...
All reservoirs and natural wetlands, while not necessarily at their
normal full pool or normal spring maximum, are faring well after
recent
above normal precipitation.
...Soil Conditions...
Soil moisture values which were a serious concern coming into late
Spring have rebounded to near normal levels for this time of year.
...Weather Outlook...
The near term 6-10 and 8-14 day weather outlooks favor above normal
temperatures with above normal to below normal precipitation across
the Souris River Basin of North Dakota. The outlooks for the month
of July have a fairly strong favoring for above above normal
temperatures with below normal precipitation. Looking our even
longer at the three-month outlooks covering July, August and
September there is again a fairly strong favoring for above normal
temperatures with below normal precipitation. This favoring of above
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation signal during the
middle to latter half of summer have been consistent now for several
months.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Des Lacs
Foxholm 1651.0 1653.0 1654.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Souris
Sherwood 1623.0 1625.0 1630.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Foxholm 1573.0 1576.0 1578.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Minot 1562.0 1565.0 1570.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Minot 1551.0 1553.0 1557.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Logan 1536.0 1538.0 1540.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sawyer 1524.0 1526.0 1528.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Velva 1507.0 1512.0 1517.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Wintering
Karlsruhe 1509.0 1511.0 1512.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Souris
Towner 1454.0 1456.0 1458.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Bantry 1440.0 1441.0 1443.0 : <5 13 <5 6 <5 <5
:Willow Creek
Willow City 1442.0 1446.0 1448.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Souris
Westhope 1414.0 1418.0 1420.0 : <5 11 <5 <5 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Des Lacs
Foxholm 1639.1 1639.1 1639.1 1639.1 1640.0 1641.0 1641.8
:Souris
Sherwood 1606.3 1606.3 1606.4 1607.4 1609.9 1611.5 1614.0
Foxholm 1566.5 1566.5 1566.5 1566.5 1568.4 1570.0 1571.0
Minot 1550.7 1550.7 1550.7 1550.8 1551.8 1553.0 1554.1
Minot 1541.3 1541.3 1541.3 1541.3 1541.7 1542.2 1542.8
Logan 1520.1 1520.1 1520.1 1520.3 1523.1 1525.2 1526.6
Sawyer 1507.2 1507.2 1507.2 1507.7 1509.3 1510.8 1512.1
Velva 1490.6 1490.6 1490.6 1491.9 1492.7 1494.0 1496.1
:Wintering
Karlsruhe 1503.4 1503.4 1503.4 1503.6 1504.3 1505.0 1505.2
:Souris
Towner 1445.8 1445.8 1445.8 1446.3 1447.8 1449.6 1452.2
Bantry 1431.6 1431.6 1431.6 1432.1 1433.2 1435.2 1437.7
:Willow Creek
Willow City 1436.5 1436.5 1436.5 1436.9 1437.3 1438.1 1438.8
:Souris
Westhope 1410.6 1410.6 1410.6 1410.6 1411.1 1412.0 1412.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 06/30/2025 - 09/28/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Des Lacs
Foxholm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Souris
Sherwood 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Foxholm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minot 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minot 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Logan 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sawyer 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Velva 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Wintering
Karlsruhe 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Souris
Towner 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bantry 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Willow Creek
Willow City 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
:Souris
Westhope 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued by the end of July.
$$
Schlag