260
FXUS64 KBMX 170533
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 802 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

What`s left of the sea breeze circulation has moved north and was
in the vicinity of Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/ Anniston early this
evening. The convection has decreased quite a bit, but did leave a
20 pop in the next few hours as boundaries interactions may cause
a pop up shower/storm. Otherwise, many locations have already
dropped into the 70s behind this boundary while the remaining
sites ranged from 80 to 90. No changes planned overnight with lows
still anticipated mainly in the 70s. Monday looks good too with
better rain chances west as a large surface high encompasses much
of the eastern CONUS and was centered in the western Atlantic.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

Showers and storms will linger for a couple of hours after sunset
due to mesoscale boundary collisions and interactions and then
diminish overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected
overnight with southeasterly flow aloft continuing. The upper
ridge will continue to build and broaden over the Mid-Atlantic
states during the day on Monday. As 700mb flow becomes more
easterly by Monday afternoon, drier air will advect westward from
Georgia and the Carolinas. Due to the influence from the upper
ridge, PoPs will be more isolated across the eastern counties,
while scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible across
the western counties, as 500mb shortwave activity and highest
PWATs will still exist. Temperatures are expected to be a tad
cooler Monday afternoon, but most folks won`t notice much of a
difference as highs top out in the low to mid 90s.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

An incredibly strong mid-level ridge will be positioned over
North Carolina and Southern Virginia to start the long-term
forecast period. The ridging will remain strong and expansive
though midweek while a disturbance becomes more organized over the
Bay of Campeche and migrates northwest toward the Southeast Texas
Coast through Wednesday. The robust ridging will continue to
persist, becoming elongated from over the Mid Atlantic Region west
to over the Central Mississippi River Valley Region toward the
end of this forecast period. The elongated ridging configuration
will result in a mid-level weakness to develop over the much of
Florida and the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, allowing an easterly wave
to move westward toward the Central Gulf Coast Region on Friday.

Similar trends were noted compared with the previous shift with
guidance high temperatures being too warm in the late week time
frame, so adjusted downward accordingly. The ridging influence
through mid week will keep PoPs quite low through Thursday.
Isolated showers and storms are expected generally along and
southeast of Interstate 59 with a scattered coverage near and
southeast of Interstate 85 on Friday. A reduction in activity is
forecast overnight followed by isolated showers and storms
areawide with scattered activity across the far southeast counties
during the day on Saturday in association with the deep tropical
moisture.

05

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2024

A highly anomalous and potentially unprecedented deep-layer ridge
to our east, will expand on Tuesday, with its center shifting
from North Carolina to near New York City. As the ridge remains
nearly stationary through Thursday, 500 mb heights may reach an
incredible 600 dam. At the southern periphery of the ridge, drier
air circulating around the ridge will move into Alabama from the
east. PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches on Tuesday and
persist through Thursday. The easterly flow from the Atlantic
should serve to moderate temperatures as well. NBM temperatures
are well above MEX guidance through the long term period, which
does not seem reasonable given reduced 850 mb temperatures and
low-level thickness values. Therefore, this update undercuts NBM
by 2 to 5 degrees for afternoon highs and 1 to 3 degrees for
morning lows, for Tuesday through Saturday.

A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach
our eastern counties on Friday. This may bring an increase in rain
chances that could continue into Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2024

Aside from leftover batch of showers that could move through TOI
between 06Z and 07Z and briefly drop visibility below 6sm,
conditions are expected to remain VFR across the area overnight.
Surge of moisture from the Gulf will have more impact the farther
west you go on Monday. Based on latest computer model guidance,
I`ve limited any mention of TSRA in the TAFs to TCL. Beyond 00Z,
all signs point to VFR areawide once again, as thunderstorm
activity continues to slide farther west.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across
much of the area, although spatial coverage looks to be somewhat
limited. 20-foot winds will be southeasterly up to 6-8 mph each
day through Tuesday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected
to drop into the 35-45 percent range Sunday and remain above 40
percent on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     94  70  90  70 /  20  10   0   0
Anniston    93  71  89  71 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  74  91  74 /  30  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  91  73  90  74 /  40  10  10   0
Calera      93  73  90  73 /  30  10   0   0
Auburn      91  70  88  71 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  94  73  89  73 /  30  10   0   0
Troy        93  70  89  71 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION.../61/