409
FXUS64 KBMX 201956
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

High pressure will remain over the area through the short term.
Easterly to southeasterly flow today will allow for an area of
higher PW values to move across the far southeastern counties with
light rain possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, dry weather
and increasing temps will be present through the short term. Heat
indices will be slightly above the temperatures with mid to upper
90s expected Friday afternoon.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

Model trends today show moisture associated with a weak
disturbance in easterly flow over the weekend will stay mostly to
our east, as it has a hard time infiltrating the slowly
retrograding upper level ridge sitting over the region. Have
trimmed back rain chances for both Saturday and Sunday. As heights
start to fall Monday and moisture increases, will see increased
rain chances through the end of the forecast period.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

A ridge at 500 mb will be located over Alabama on Saturday with
weak flow throughout the column. With the absence of slightly
cooler easterly flow, the airmass will begin to cook. Temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 90s in most areas Saturday
afternoon. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and
amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. Our area will be on the edge of the trough under
continental northwesterly flow at 500mb, with westerly low-level
flow favoring slightly hotter conditions. Some locations are
expected to reach the upper 90s for highs on Sunday. Similar
temperatures could continue into Monday and Tuesday as the hot
continental flow continues.

Weak southeasterly flow should bring an increase in moisture to
our southern and eastern counties on Saturday, and this moisture
should remain in place on Sunday. Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and storms appear possible south of Interstate 20 on both
days. Gradual height falls and moistening across the region will
result in an uptrend in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, an abundance of moisture and
continued height falls, should result in fairly widespread
convection and a reduction in temperatures.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

Southeasterly flow is bringing an area of high moisture to
mainly KMGM and KTOI with pockets of MVFR ceilings and
light rain possible through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail overnight and Friday with high pressure remaining
over the area.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday as easterly
winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 4 to 8 mph are
expected Friday before becoming very light on Saturday. 20ft winds
becomes westerly Sunday, at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values
should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Sunday. A
slight increase in moisture could yield a few isolated showers and
storms both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, generally near and
south of Interstate 85.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     66  94  67  95 /   0   0   0  10
Anniston    67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
Birmingham  70  95  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  70  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      70  94  72  97 /   0   0   0  10
Auburn      69  92  72  92 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  69  94  71  95 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        67  93  69  95 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24