Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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506 FXUS64 KBMX 101136 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 636 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 This morning, the cold front is near a Demopolis to Alex City line and sliding south. The bulk of the rain is behind the front right now, with only a few isolated cores along the front in southwest Alabama. This should continue to be the trend through the morning hours. The front should be south of the I-85 corridor after sunrise and most likely out of the forecast area by Noon to 1 PM. We will continue to carry rain chances through the afternoon as what lift we do have is behind the surface front but ahead of the disturbance aloft. There is a chance for a stronger storm or two through the morning in the south and southeast, with gusty winds and small hail possible but widespread hazardous weather is not expected. Dry conditions areawide tonight and Tuesday as high pressure builds into the area. There could be some patchy river fog in the morning right at sunrise. A drier airmass will be in place Tuesday with temperatures back into 80s. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 332 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 Northwesterly flow aloft and subsidence in the wake of trough along the East Coast, will reinforce a cool and dry airmass across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low PWAT values and very light northerly winds will promote radiational cooling with lows ranging from the mid 50s in the north to the lower 60s in the south on Wednesday morning. Additionally, most of the forecast area will experience temperatures below 90 degrees on Wednesday afternoon. A gradual warming trend will begin thereafter, with widespread low 90s for highs on Thursday as an upper-level ridge starts to move in from the west. This ridge will shift eastward toward the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday, leading to continued hot and dry conditions. A disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico appears to be headed toward the western Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. At this time, the deepest tropical moisture is expected to remain west of Alabama, but the arrival of higher PWAT values could result in isolated to scattered showers and storms on Sunday. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT MON JUN 10 2024 The cold front is now just south of MGM and sliding toward TOI. Not much rain is currently with the front and actually more post- frontal, closer to a upper level boundary moving south. Any shower with this line will be brief and have very little impact to TAF locations across the north. There could be a storm at MGM and TOI through the afternoon until this boundary passes. There could be some patchy river fog in the morning but not confident enough to place a tempo in just yet. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Afternoon minimum RHs are forecast to remain above critical levels over the next few days. Overnight RH recovery should be in the upper 70s to low 90s. 20-foot winds should run at or less than 7 mph over the next few days, northerly today then northeasterly on Tuesday. Some showers and thunderstorms may occur through this afternoon across the southern half of the area as the front finally clears the area. Dry weather is expected from Tuesday through at least Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 85 56 84 56 / 20 0 0 0 Anniston 86 57 85 58 / 20 0 0 0 Birmingham 86 59 85 61 / 20 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 87 59 86 60 / 20 0 0 0 Calera 87 60 86 61 / 20 0 0 0 Auburn 87 62 87 63 / 30 10 0 0 Montgomery 89 62 88 62 / 30 10 0 0 Troy 91 63 89 62 / 40 10 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...16