760
FXUS64 KBMX 271152
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 206 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024

Hurricane Helene continues to lift quickly north-northeastward
across Georgia. The upper low will eventually pull it back to the
northwest, and it will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone
across Kentucky and Tennessee tonight. Dry air has been eating away
at the western side of the rain shield, but strong low-level
convergence is driving a heavy tropical rain band across our far
eastern counties. This is where flash flooding will remain likely.
Rain will end quickly from south to north this morning. Will keep
an eye on the far northeast counties where a flooding threat
could linger a bit past the 7 AM flood watch expiration. Starting
to see some increasing wind gusts as winds begin to take on more
of a westerly component and the drier air increases mixing. This
will result in wind gusts around 35 mph through this morning
across the eastern half of the state, possibly near 40 mph right
along the state line.

As the upper low drifts southeastward in response to Helene lifting
northwestward, wraparound moisture and light shower activity will
move back in from the northwest this afternoon and evening.
Southwest winds will remain gusty, with high res-models showing some
40 to 50kt winds in the 925-850mb layer. This will result in
gradient wind gusts around 35 kts across the northern counties,
where a wind advisory remains in effect. On Saturday, post-tropical
Helene will be vertically stacked with the upper low centered over
the Mid-South. Winds will remain breezy but will be below
advisory criteria. Showers will remain possible in the northern
counties near the upper low with lingering wraparound moisture,
while warming temperatures are expected across the southern
counties.

32/JDavis

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024

The main upper level low continues to linger across much of the area
Sunday, leading to some lingering showers across the northern
portions of Central AL. This should slowly lift more northward as we
go into the early part of next week, ending rain chances for Central
AL. The trough axis slide to our east Tuesday and high pressure
builds in through the Southeastern CONUS Wednesday through Thursday.
This will lead to rain-free conditions for much of the upcoming
week. Highs will generally be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. A
frontal boundary is possible Wednesday into Thursday, but guidance
differs on whether the front reaches Central AL or stalls to our
north. Either way, we should remain dry, but if it moves into the
area, we could see a subtle drop in temperatures around mid-week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 27 2024

Tropical Storm Helene continues to move northward across Georgia
this morning. An area of moderate to heavy rainfall continues
across northeast Central Alabama, and has rotated north and away
from all forecast terminals. Meanwhile, wraparound isolated to
scattered showers will spread southward across west Central
Alabama through today. A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR cigs start the
forecast period, and expect MVFR cigs to remain across northern
terminals through much of the day, with improvement at MGM by mid
morning.

Elevated westerly winds will continue through today, becoming
southwesterly as Helene continues north and away from the area.
Sustained winds of 12-18kts with gusts up to 30kts are
possible.

AMD NOT SKED at ANB due to occasional comms issues.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds will continue to be gusty today before decreasing on Saturday.
Rain chances decrease through the day today with the best chances
across the north. Min RHs will be around 50% across the south with
70-80% in the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  62  75  59 /  60  30  30  10
Anniston    75  63  78  62 /  40  10  20   0
Birmingham  74  64  76  62 /  40  30  20   0
Tuscaloosa  77  63  79  61 /  40  30  20   0
Calera      77  64  80  63 /  20  20  20   0
Auburn      78  63  82  64 /  10   0  10   0
Montgomery  81  64  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        80  63  84  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
for the following counties: Fayette-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Clay-Cleburne-Etowah-Jefferson-
Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega.

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-Elmore-
Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...14