315
FXUS64 KBMX 211722
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

A 596dam ridge is situated over the Tennessee Valley with deep
easterly flow across the area. Deeper moisture is present to our
east associated with a tropical low just off the coast of
Georgia/Florida, but a much drier airmass is in place over the
Southeast. The ridge will slowly shift westward through tomorrow,
but temperatures will trend gradually warmer over the next couple of
days with highs in the mid to upper 90s under mostly sunny skies.
The tropical low is forecast to move onshore tonight. Most of the
moisture and higher rain chances will remain to our east, but
there`s a small chance of a shower or storm in our far
southeastern counties tomorrow afternoon.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

Key message:

- Hot conditions continue into next week with heat indices near
  105 possible, especially Tuesday afternoon.

The center of the subtropical ridge will retrograde southwestward
towards the Southern High Plains on Sunday, while a couple
shortwaves move through the Great Lakes and New England. At the
surface, low pressure will move eastward across northern New
England with a trailing cold front over the Ohio Valley and a lee
trough east of the Appalachians. Central Alabama looks to remain
in a dry air mass Sunday between the pre-frontal moisture axis
over Kentucky and Tennesse and remnant tropical moisture over
southeast Georgia. Weak westerly low-level flow should be
favorable for high temperatures in the upper 90s but dew points
should mix enough to keep heat indices below 105. A couple showers
and storms developing ahead of the front along outflow boundaries
might reach the northern counties late Sunday night and Monday
morning but the front will be dissipating. Slightly higher rain
chances may exist across the southern counties Monday afternoon
along and south of the weak lee trough. The boundary moving
through may keep temperatures in the mid 90s vs the upper 90s, but
dew points will begin to creep up and heat indices may approach
105 in a few spots.

The remnant boundary/moisture gradient will remain over the area
Tuesday and may lift northeastward a bit. Scattered showers and
storms will be possible along and south of the boundary.
Temperatures should warm back into the upper 90s prior to
convection developing. Will have to watch dew point trends as this
appears to be the day with the best chance of needing a heat
advisory if dew points don`t mix out too much. Northwest flow
aloft continues Wednesday between ridging over the Four Corners
and weak troughing over the Southeast. A convectively enhanced
shortwave trough may move out of the Central Plains, with some
guidance indicating a potential MCS. Rain chances look highest on
Wednesday with hot and humid conditions ahead of any storms.
Showers and storms may continue into Thursday depending on the
timing of the shortwave with heat indices beginning to trend
downward slightly.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2024

Strong ridging is centered over the Tennessee Valley resulting in
VFR aviation conditions. Some cumulus has developed this
afternoon and some high clouds will pass across the area tonight,
but no restrictions are expected. Surface winds are from the east
at 5 to 8 kts then calm winds are expected after 01Z.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through tonight as easterly
winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 4 to 8 mph are
expected today before becoming very light on Saturday. 20ft winds
becomes westerly Sunday, at 4 to 8 mph. Afternoon RH values
should range from 35 to 45 percent each day through Sunday. A
slight increase in moisture could yield a few isolated showers and
storms Saturday afternoon, generally near and south of Interstate
85.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  95  69  97 /   0  10   0  10
Anniston    68  95  72  96 /   0  10   0  10
Birmingham  73  97  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  71  97  73  98 /   0  10   0   0
Calera      70  97  73  98 /   0  10   0  10
Auburn      71  94  73  95 /   0  10   0  10
Montgomery  69  96  73  97 /   0  10   0  10
Troy        68  96  72  97 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...86/Martin