349
FXUS64 KBMX 190009
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
709 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 119 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

A pleasant day is ongoing across Central Alabama and across the
region as a northerly flow continues at the surface. The closed
low continues to spin over the Smoky Mountains, with enough
moisture at the 700mb level for mid-level clouds to form across
northern and northeastern Alabama. So far, we don`t have enough
moisture for shower development but certainly can`t rule out a
very isolated shower across our far northeastern counties. Will
opt to keep mention of PoPs out of the forecast through the
afternoon on this update. Forecast highs remain in good shape and
on track to reach the mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the
far southern counties.

Mostly clear skies are expected overnight tonight with some patchy
fog developing once again. Fog did not end up quite as widespread
as anticipated last night, and will therefore keep mention of fog
mostly patchy with isolated pockets of dense fog not being ruled
out. Lows will be a few degrees higher than last night as low
level moisture slightly increases in the low to mid 60s. The
closed low to our northeast will weaken and move eastward toward
the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday, while upper heights will
increase over the region in response to a building ridge in
northern Mexico. With plenty of dry air across the profile, rain
chances will remain minimal with plenty of sunshine and highs
reaching close to 90 degrees areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

No major changes to the long-term forecast. The weather should
remain quiet for the next several days with the increased
presence of ridging aloft. However, the ridge is progged to
position to our southeast toward the end of the period, which
would support boundary layer moisture advection and perhaps a few
diurnal showers/storms in the area.

40/Sizemore

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

Nothing much happening in the long term. Troughing along the east
coast will eventually give way to an upper level ridge that build
into the southeast states over the weekend and into early next week.
Moisture levels remain quite low, and rain chances will range from
slim to none. The upper ridge will also help temperatures climb back
up close to or above 90 degrees by the weekend as well. There`s some
hint of the ridge breaking down and allowing some moisture to return
to the area around the middle of next week. Will continue to watch
the tropics intently, but nothing of high enough confidence to get
too excited about for our area at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected for most through the forecast. The
exception will be a possibility of some patchy fog in the NE
counties tonight. I have an MVFR VSBY TEMPO mention at ASN/ANB
from 10-12z. Otherwise, look for light/variable to near calm winds
tonight with light NRLY winds during Thu afternoon with mixing ~
4-7kts.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain free conditions and a warming trend are expected across the
area through the rest of the week, with light 20 ft winds.
Humidity levels are expected to remain above critical thresholds
through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    63  88  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  65  88  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  65  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      66  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      66  88  68  89 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  66  90  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        65  89  68  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56/GDG
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore/61
AVIATION...08