063
FXUS64 KBMX 171117
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
617 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

The leftover moisture to our west will finally be ushered back to
our south today as high pressure builds in. This will be ahead of
the the expanding area of moisture, associated with the tropical
moisture along the east coast, that will move into our northwest.
Rain chances today should be limited to the far southern sections of
the region as the boundary pushes south. As we move into Wednesday
there are some mixed messages amongst the guidance. A few of the
CAMS show a dry day as the area of high pressure fends off the
moisture from the east, while others indicate there will be enough
moisture to generate a few showers/storms during the peak heating of
the day. With our soil moisture in place, it would take a lot of
added moisture to generate the shower or two. Decided to increase
PoPs to 14 to 20 percent, with the only mention of rain in the
southeast. Will likely need to expand this area to the north with
the next few updates based on the trends.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

Drier northerly flow continues Thursday into Friday as the main
trough axis remains to our east. Then, high pressure builds in with
an amplified ridge aloft Friday through the weekend. This will lead
to continued dry weather through early next week. The upper ridge
begins to break down Sunday into Monday, but the high pressure in
the lower levels persists, which should keep any rain chances well
to our north.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024

With clear skies to the north and partly cloudy skies south,
there have been a few instances of fog this morning across the
north. Any lingering fog should burn off by 14z. Winds become
northwest around 5 to 7 kts after 15 to 17z, with generally
scattered mid to upper clouds and a few cumulus. Any rain activity
should remain south of the TAF locations.

NOTE: ANB appears to be back in regards to communication. Started
issuing the TAF with this update but left in AMD NOT SKED,
awaiting more continuity with the observations.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated showers are possible across the south today as a boundary
is draped along south of Hwy 80. This boundary should push to the
south by tomorrow leading to rain-free conditions, which will
persist through the weekend as high pressure builds in. Min RHs will
generally be at or above 50% each day with isolated spots of 40-50%
possible depending on mixing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  59  86  62 /   0   0  10   0
Anniston    86  61  86  64 /   0   0  10   0
Birmingham  86  62  86  65 /   0   0  10   0
Tuscaloosa  87  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      87  63  87  67 /   0   0  10   0
Auburn      86  64  87  66 /   0   0  10   0
Montgomery  87  66  89  66 /  10  10  10   0
Troy        85  65  86  66 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...16