Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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040 FXUS64 KBMX 170824 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 The leftover moisture to our west will finally be ushered back to our south today as high pressure builds in. This will be ahead of the the expanding area of moisture, associated with the tropical moisture along the east coast, that will move into our northwest. Rain chances today should be limited to the far southern sections of the region as the boundary pushes south. As we move into Wednesday there are some mixed messages amongst the guidance. A few of the CAMS show a dry day as the area of high pressure fends off the moisture from the east, while others indicate there will be enough moisture to generate a few showers/storms during the peak heating of the day. With our soil moisture in place, it would take a lot of added moisture to generate the shower or two. Decided to increase PoPs to 14 to 20 percent, with the only mention of rain in the southeast. Will likely need to expand this area to the north with the next few updates based on the trends. 16 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 319 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Drier northerly flow continues Thursday into Friday as the main trough axis remains to our east. Then, high pressure builds in with an amplified ridge aloft Friday through the weekend. This will lead to continued dry weather through early next week. The upper ridge begins to break down Sunday into Monday, but the high pressure in the lower levels persists, which should keep any rain chances well to our north. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2024 Mid and upper level cloudiness will continue over a large part of the area overnight. But some clear to partly cloudy conditions will develop as the drier air moves in from the northeast. Due to some cooling overnight and the residual moist ground conditions, some patchy fog may develop toward sunrise. Winds become northwest around 5 to 7 kts after 15 to 17z, with generally scattered mid to upper clouds and a few cumulus. Any rain activity should remain south of the TAF locations. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated showers are possible across the south today as a boundary is draped along south of Hwy 80. This boundary should push to the south by tomorrow leading to rain-free conditions, which will persist through the weekend as high pressure builds in. Min RHs will generally be at or above 50% each day with isolated spots of 40-50% possible depending on mixing. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 87 59 86 62 / 0 0 10 0 Anniston 86 61 86 64 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 10 0 Tuscaloosa 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 87 63 87 67 / 0 0 10 0 Auburn 86 64 87 66 / 0 0 10 0 Montgomery 87 66 89 66 / 10 10 10 0 Troy 85 65 86 66 / 20 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....25/Owen AVIATION...16