Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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304 FXUS64 KBMX 151723 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 A ridge in place over Central Alabama will result in highs in the mid to upper 90s across the area today. Highs have trended downward a couple degrees with this latest update, with most areas across Central Alabama remaining at 98F or below. CAMs have shown the potential for a few showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, so have added slight chance PoPs in the east for the afternoon and evening hours. Heat index numbers should remain largely in the 100-105F or below, so a Heat Advisory will not be issued. As the ridge slides eastward Sunday, southeasterly flow will hold highs mainly in the mid 90s. Shower and thunderstorm potential looks comparatively more likely than today, so went with slight chance PoPs across most of the area and chance PoPs south of I-85. 12 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 A deep-layer ridge will be centered over North Carolina on Monday, opening the door to south-southeast flow in the 850-500 mb layer across Alabama. This will lead to a significant increase in PWAT values over the western third of our state. A moisture gradient from west to east will correspond with POPs ranging from 50 percent along the AL/MS state line to 20 percent on our eastern border. The ridge axis will swing back to the west on Tuesday, and as flow becomes more easterly, PWAT values should drop below 1.5 inches across most of the area. Accordingly, any showers and thunderstorms should be isolated in nature and confined to our western counties. A large area of subsidence and below normal moisture content will persist across the region for Wednesday and Thursday with no rain expected. A tropical wave embedded within easterly flow could begin to reach our eastern counties on Friday along with a slight increase in rain chances. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. A very small chance for a pop up shower or storm is forecast later this afternoon into the evening. Expect light winds overnight with scattered lingering clouds over the area followed by an isolated chance of a pop up shower or storm on Sunday with best potential during the afternoon through early evening hours. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected through Sunday morning, with the exception of a couple showers or storms east of I-65 this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon across much of the area, although coverage still looks to be fairly limited. 20- foot winds will be light and variable through Sunday morning, becoming southeasterly up to 6-8 mph through Monday evening. Afternoon min RH values are expected to drop into the 35-45 percent today and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 70 96 71 91 / 10 30 10 20 Anniston 72 95 72 92 / 20 20 10 20 Birmingham 74 98 74 92 / 20 20 10 30 Tuscaloosa 73 98 74 90 / 20 20 10 40 Calera 72 97 74 91 / 20 20 10 30 Auburn 72 95 74 90 / 20 20 10 20 Montgomery 73 97 74 92 / 10 20 20 30 Troy 71 95 72 92 / 10 20 20 30 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...05