901
FXUS64 KBMX 021223
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
723 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

This AM, an upper trough is over E Conus with C AL now in WRLY flow
in its base. While we will still have some convection possible today
and tonight associated with this trough, coverage should be
decreasing overall. By Monday morning, the trough should continue
EWD and reach the Atlantic Seaboard. This will result in upper
ridging beginning to take hold over portions of E Conus. As this
happens, we should transition to more isolated overall convection
for Monday and more diurnally based. In addition, daytime
temperatures should moderate some today and more so for Monday with
less rainfall and overall decreasing cloud cover.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing
pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on
Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of
Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis
will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to
increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the
afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the
evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty
consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through
Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been
quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday
into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through
Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity
will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes
into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are noted at present. Conditions should
begin to improve and become VFR between 15-19z. (S to N) Will
continue to have isolated to scattered SHRA and a few TSRA at
times as well as upper system progresses EWD. Winds will increase
with mixing to be generally SRLY 4-6kts today with some variable
higher gusts possible in storms. For tonight, they should become
light and variable again. We lower rain chances tonight, but
residual moisture around, we could see some patchy fog in the E
late. Have an MVFR mention after 10z for ASN/ANB/TOI.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday.  RH
values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     83  63  87  66 /  60  20  20  10
Anniston    83  65  87  67 /  50  20  20  10
Birmingham  84  67  87  69 /  30  20  20  10
Tuscaloosa  85  68  89  70 /  20  20  20  10
Calera      84  67  87  69 /  30  20  20  10
Auburn      80  67  84  69 /  40  30  20  10
Montgomery  84  67  86  69 /  40  20  20  10
Troy        84  66  86  68 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08