615
FXUS64 KBMX 010938
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
438 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 415 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Upper ridging over E Conus has shifted enough EWD to allow for a
shortwave trough to swing in from the Plains. Our mean flow is SSW
into C AL for the activity although the entire swath is slowly
shifting ESEWD as the shortwave swings into E Conus today and
toward the coast on Sunday. On Sunday the wave weakens some, but
will still be enough for some continued scattered convection.
Convection is widespread this morning with some embedded bands of
thunder. During the afternoon and evening today, some storms may
be strong enough for a marginal downburst wind threat. There will
also be heavy rain at times to contend with. Amounts are expected
to be manageable with periodic breaks, with higher amounts closer
to the coast. With more widespread rain today and extensive cloud
cover, temperatures are not expected to be as warm today, but
should be rebound on Sunday to closer to normal with more
scattered convection as opposed to today.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Monday through Friday.

High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally
weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to
largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and
Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a
trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal
boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a
better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in
place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this
system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe
threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 154 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Conditions have been VFR generally with some showers and embedded
tstorms across portion of C AL. Conditions will deteriorate to
MVFR as showers become more widespread with waves of embedded
tstorms at times. Conditions should be generally MVFR, but an
occasional IFR can`t be ruled out with some heavier storms or
toward the end of the forecast in the N. Only mention as of now is
BHM after 3z for cigs. Winds will be SE-S and gusty at times,
more so in storms.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected today, decreasing
through the afternoon. Rain chances remain near or above 40% for
Sunday and become more isolated to scattered for Monday. Winds
will be out of the southeast today, becoming more southerly
tonight into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     75  63  84  63 /  80  60  50  20
Anniston    75  64  84  65 /  80  50  50  20
Birmingham  75  67  84  68 /  80  50  40  20
Tuscaloosa  78  67  86  68 /  90  50  30  10
Calera      76  67  84  68 /  80  50  40  20
Auburn      75  66  81  67 /  60  60  50  20
Montgomery  78  67  84  68 /  80  50  50  20
Troy        78  65  85  67 /  80  50  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...08