142
FXUS64 KBMX 281724
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

High pressure will develop over the MS River Valley and slowly
move east through the short term. Mid level flow will remain out
of the north today, limiting the amount of moisture advection to
the state, leaving mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Wednesday morning, as the high pressure
moves east, flow will shift to out of the southeast, bringing
warm and moist air beginning to advect into the western part of
the state. A shortwave will move across the south, causing showers
and isolated thunderstorms to develop to the west of Alabama.
However, instability will be fairly limited, so models diverge on
how much activity will be over the state. Opted for a optimistic
scenario with an increase in clouds and an isolated small cell to
occur over western third of Central Alabama, but otherwise, the
area should remain mostly dry.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Weather conditions in the long term look to be dominated by rather
progressive upper level flow, with several shortwaves zipping
through periodically. Difference in timing/placement and strength of
individual shortwaves among the various models leads to a somewhat
low confidence forecast. Looks like one wave approaches the area on
Friday, and another on Saturday, both if which could lead to periods
of slightly enhanced POPs. Otherwise, we may be entering a more
summertime weather regime, with daily diurnal convective chances
being driven by mesoscale processes not handled well by the long
range global models.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. High pressure
will move over the state with high to mid clouds increasing on
Thursday.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions expected today and tomorrow with Min RHs dropping
into the mid to upper 30% range. Northwesterly winds could be gusty
at times this afternoon before becoming light and variable during
the overnight periods. Moisture gradually increases as we go into
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  85  59  79 /   0  10  10  10
Anniston    60  85  61  81 /   0  10  10  10
Birmingham  63  86  65  81 /   0  20  10  10
Tuscaloosa  63  88  65  82 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      63  88  65  82 /   0  20  10  10
Auburn      65  87  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  64  88  66  84 /   0  10  10  20
Troy        64  89  66  86 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...24