346
FXUS64 KBMX 030642
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
142 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 751 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Isolated to scattered convection was present over Central Alabama
early this evening. The activity may produce a brief period of
gusty winds and will diminish within a few hours. After midnight,
southerly flow just off the surface will provide just enough lift
for low cloud and fog development. Therefore, many areas will
experience a cloudy and foggy early morning that will give way to
partly cloudy skies by late morning.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Central Alabama remains in a fairly moist and stagnant weather
pattern through the short term period. A surface ridge is
currently centered over the southwestern Atlantic with a weak
southerly flow present across the Deep South. Meanwhile, an upper
level trough axis has moved east over the Mid-Atlantic states with
westerly flow aloft over much of the Southeast. Isentropic lift
during the overnight hours produced widespread low stratus clouds,
that are still hanging on as we approach midday for locations
along the I-20 corridor. In the meantime, isolated to scattered
showers with a few storms have developed this morning from
leftover mesoscale boundary interactions. As daytime heating
continues to increase through the afternoon, a few storms will be
capable of producing gusty winds as SBCAPE increases to 2500-3000
J/kg with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg, especially across western and
southwestern portions of Central Alabama. Even though the storms
will be pulse-like in nature, Effective Bulk Shear around 20 knots
may keep updrafts going a little longer before they collapse. Due
to a lack of organized forcing, storms should remain below severe
limits, but wouldn`t rule out the issuance of some Special Weather
Statements with 40mph wind gusts later this afternoon.

Skies are expected to clear out overnight tonight as showers and
storms diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Low
stratus clouds and fog development appears likely as ground
conditions remain fairly wet. Areas with the best chance for fog
will be across eastern and northeastern counties where clouds have
hung on the longest into the afternoon with less time for sunshine
to dry out the surface. We`ll need to monitor observation trends
through the evening for the potential of issuing a Dense Fog
Advisory during the overnight hours.

Low clouds and fog will mix out through Monday morning, giving way
to a very warm afternoon with partly cloudy skies. Only isolated
showers and storms are currently in the forecast, as upper level
ridging sets up over the region. The next upper level shortwave
impulse to our west will pivot to the northeast, keeping most
organized showers and storms well to our northwest through Monday
evening. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
areawide.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

Really not much of a change as we remain fairly active through
Thursday. Timing has not improved any with the Friday and Saturday
time in regards to the frontal passage. The good news is that the
consensus of the models do push the front through the area and
may provide us with some drier conditions for a couple of days.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT SUN JUN 2 2024

High pressure shifts to our east as weak upper level troughing
pushes southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop through the afternoon on
Tuesday with the best chances across the northwestern half of
Central AL due to proximity of the shortwave. The main trough axis
will slide through the region Wednesday through Thursday leading to
increased rain and thunderstorm coverage, especially in the
afternoons.

As we approach the end of the week, uncertainty increases on the
evolution of the main upper trough as guidance has been pretty
consistent in showing a frontal boundary pushing southward through
Central AL. However, the timing of that frontal passage has been
quite variable leading to low confidence in the forecast for Friday
into Saturday. The details of when the front will push through
Central AL and what that means in terms of thunderstorm activity
will need to be worked out in coming days when model guidance comes
into better agreement on the timing.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM CDT MON JUN 3 2024

All sites are currently VFR as of now. The radar should be quiet
for the remainder of the night and into Monday morning. Conditions
are expected to deteriorate to MVFR at least for all, with some
going to IFR/LIFR after 10z toward sunrise. Any patchy fog should
resolve itself ~ 13-15z. Cigs may last 1-2 hours longer. Some
scattered late afternoon diurnal convection is possible. Only
confident enough at this time to mention at MGM/TOI. Finally,
toward the end of the TAF, hires guidance is indicating a possible
convective complex to move into C AL Mon evening through the WNW
upper flow. At this time, I only have a mention in TCL 3-6z.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today.
Generally light southerly winds will persist through Tuesday.  RH
values will remain above 50 for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     87  65  88  67 /  20  20  60  30
Anniston    87  68  87  68 /  20  20  60  30
Birmingham  88  69  88  71 /  20  20  60  30
Tuscaloosa  89  70  88  71 /  20  30  50  20
Calera      87  69  87  70 /  20  20  50  20
Auburn      85  69  87  70 /  20  20  40  20
Montgomery  87  68  90  70 /  30  20  50  10
Troy        87  68  90  69 /  30  20  50  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75/56/GDG
LONG TERM....16/25/Owen
AVIATION...08