241
FXUS64 KBMX 200859
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
359 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

A continued low level flow of fresh low dewpoint air will keep
central Alabama dry for at least a couple more days. It also
doesn`t hurt that we are also still on the southwestern edge of
the big upper level ridge that is bringing the heat to many of the
population centers in the northeast. While "Alberto" is pretty
much a non-factor for our area, there is a tropical wave in the
Atlantic that is forecast to scoot across the southern periphery
of the upper ridge, and could perhaps spread some showers into
south Alabama on Friday. We may eventually need to introduce some
small POPs in the far southeastern counties Friday afternoon to
account for this. Other than that, not much else to say, except
"Play ball!"

/61/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

A ridge at 500 mb will be located over Alabama on Saturday with
weak flow throughout the column. With the absence of slightly
cooler easterly flow, the airmass will begin to cook. Temperatures
are expected to reach the mid 90s in most areas Saturday
afternoon. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and
amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. Our area will be on the edge of the trough under
continental northwesterly flow at 500mb, with westerly low-level
flow favoring slightly hotter conditions. Some locations are
expected to reach the upper 90s for highs on Sunday. Similar
temperatures could continue into Monday and Tuesday as the hot
continental flow continues.

Weak southeasterly flow should bring an increase in moisture to
our southern and eastern counties on Saturday, and this moisture
should remain in place on Sunday. Isolated afternoon and evening
showers and storms appear possible south of Interstate 20 on both
days. Gradual height falls and moistening across the region will
result in an uptrend in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms
on Monday and Tuesday. By Wednesday, an abundance of moisture and
continued height falls, should result in fairly widespread
convection and a reduction in temperatures.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

Will continue with VFR forecast through the next 24 hours. Lower
than normal dewpoints and lack of any sustained forcing will keep
daily convection suppressed and overnight visibilities above 6SM.
Basically a wind speed forecast after that, with light to calm
conditions at night and around 8-10 kts (perhaps a bit higher at
MGM and TOI) during the daylight hours.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday as easterly
winds reinforce a dry airmass. 20 foot winds of 5 to 8 mph are
expected on those days before coming very light on Saturday.
Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent each day
through Saturday. A slight increase on moisture could yield a few
isolated showers and storms south of Interstate 20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  66  93  68 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    92  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  93  70  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      93  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      90  69  92  73 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  92  69  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        91  67  93  70 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM....87/Grantham
AVIATION.../61/