Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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411 FXUS64 KBMX 121141 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 641 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 An upper level weakness within broad ridging will slide across the Lower Mississippi River Valley today and over the northern Gulf Coast tomorrow. At the surface, a front remains well to our south, located from near Jacksonville to New Orleans, while surface high pressure continues to stretch from New England to Texas. Today, humidity values remain relatively low, with mostly sunny skies and warming temperatures. Highs will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in the 60s to lower 70s. Thursday, low level easterly flow increases on the north side of a weak surface low in the northern Gulf. A few showers or storms could develop across the southeast in the vicinity of upper level troughing and a weak inverted surface trough. Highs will continue to warm, with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 Hot and dry conditions will take hold across the region on Friday as a deep layer ridge moves eastward from the Southern Plains. This ridge will continue moving eastward through the weekend and become centered over Georgia on Sunday. During this stretch, temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s each afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s should keep heat indices in the 95 to 102 degree range. We continue to observe significant disagreement in model guidance regarding a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and the associated slug of tropical moisture. The ECMWF continues to indicate a ridge holding firm over the Southeast CONUS through Tuesday with isolated diurnal convection. However, the GFS now splits the Gulf disturbance in two with a portion of it heading for Mississippi and Alabama. The GFS has been overzealous with the development of a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico for many days while also being inconsistent. For this forecast update, POPs continue to be aligned with the drier scenario portrayed in our previous forecasts. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2024 Currently, no impacts to vis at forecast terminals this morning, although there are a couple areas of fog across the area. Cirrus continues to stream across the area, and expect that to continue through the day. Winds will remain light and variable due to the influence of high pressure. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Other than isolated rain chances in the far southeast Thursday afternoon, rain free conditions are expected through Saturday. RHs are forecast to remain above critical thresholds, dropping as low as 30-35 percent at times, each afternoon. Overnight RH values recover to above 85 percent tonight and Thursday night. 20-foot winds at less then 6mph will have some directional variability through Saturday due to the influence of surface ridging. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 88 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 89 66 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Birmingham 90 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 90 65 93 69 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 89 66 92 70 / 0 0 10 0 Auburn 89 70 89 71 / 0 10 10 0 Montgomery 92 67 93 72 / 0 0 10 0 Troy 92 67 93 71 / 10 10 20 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...14