194
FXUS64 KBMX 200526
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1226 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

Deep-layer easterly flow will persist through Thursday, driven by
ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alberto
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. With no notable features
embedded within the flow pattern, fair weather is expected.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

Made some refinements to rain chances in the extended as the ridge
retreats back to the west. Capped pops at 50 percent given
uncertainty with timing of upper level impulses in
westerly/northwesterly flow and whether activity will be purely
diurnally driven.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over
Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid-
Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along
with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a
nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s
on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching
the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and
amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote
similar temperatures despite height falls.

As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday
and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and
storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate
20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday
as height falls continue across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

Will continue with VFR forecast through the next 24 hours. Lower
than normal dewpoints and lack of any sustained forcing will keep
daily convection suppressed and overnight visibilities above 6SM.
Basically a wind speed forecast after that, with light to calm
conditions at night and around 8-10 kts (perhaps a bit higher at
MGM and TOI) during the daylight hours.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday morning as
easterly winds bring drier air to the region. There is an isolated
chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon across the extreme
southeast, but most of the area will remain dry through Saturday
morning. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
range each day through Saturday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 5 to 10
mph are expected each day through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     92  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    91  68  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  93  71  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  92  71  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      93  70  95  72 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      90  69  91  72 /   0   0  10  10
Montgomery  92  69  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
Troy        91  68  93  71 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION.../61/