185
FXUS64 KBMX 192332
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
632 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

Deep-layer easterly flow will persist through Thursday, driven by
ridging centered over the Mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Alberto
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. With no notable features
embedded within the flow pattern, fair weather is expected.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

Made some refinements to rain chances in the extended as the ridge
retreats back to the west. Capped pops at 50 percent given
uncertainty with timing of upper level impulses in
westerly/northwesterly flow and whether activity will be purely
diurnally driven.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

The center of a 596 dam ridge at 500 mb will be centered over
Tennessee on Friday on its southwestward course from the Mid-
Atlantic states. The proximity of the ridge and high heights along
with a weakening of cooler easterly flow, should correspond with a
nudge upward in temperatures. Much of the area should see mid 90s
on Friday and Saturday with a couple of spots possibly reaching
the upper 90s. On Sunday the ridge should retreat westward and
amplify, resulting in the development of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. As this occurs, westerly low-level flow will promote
similar temperatures despite height falls.

As enhanced moisture arrives with southeasterly flow on Saturday
and remains in place on Sunday, isolated or scattered showers and
storms will return for areas mainly along and south of Interstate
20. Rain chances could continue to increase on Monday and Tuesday
as height falls continue across the region.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through Thursday. One exception may be
brief MVFR ceilings at TOI around 12-15z Thursday, associated with
a westbound lobe of low-level moisture toward the coast.
Otherwise, there will be a varied presence of clouds with easterly
breezes upwards of 5 knots at times tonight and upwards of 10
knots on Thursday.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain-free conditions will persist through Friday morning as
easterly winds bring drier air to the region. There is an isolated
chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon across the extreme
southeast, but most of the area will remain dry through Saturday
morning. Afternoon RH values should range from 35 to 45 percent
range each day through Saturday. Easterly 20 ft winds of 5 to 10
mph are expected each day through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  93  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    69  92  68  93 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  72  94  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  72  94  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      71  93  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
Montgomery  70  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
Troy        69  92  68  93 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89^GSatterwhite
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite