871
FXUS64 KBMX 160802
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
302 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

A broad area of lower heights resides over the southeastern CONUS
this morning, as the remnant low of Francine continues to spin
over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and a potential tropical
cyclone spins just off the South Carolina coast. By Tuesday, the
remnants of Francine will become absorbed by the stronger cyclone,
moving westward toward the southern Appalachians. Drier air will
wrap around the north and west side of the system off the SC coast
today, advecting into northeastern Central Alabama.

The persistent fetch of moisture and convergence axis over the
area will continue to shift southwestward today, with scattered
showers being limited to portions of the west and south. Drier
conditions expected tonight, with mostly clear skies. If boundary
layer winds trend lower, will need to consider fog tonight, given
saturated ground conditions. For Tuesday, sunny skies and drier
conditions expected for most of the area. As the moisture axis
becomes oriented west to east across south Alabama, cannot rule
out a couple showers across far southern areas.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

A frontal boundary will push southward through Central AL Tuesday
night through Wednesday as the remnants of the potential tropical
cyclone become absorbed with the deeper trough across the Eastern
US. The boundary could lead to some lower rain chances across our
southernmost counties Wednesday afternoon, but most of the
rain/thunderstorm activity should remain to our south.

A blocking pattern persists Thursday through the end of the week
with little meaningful change in our sensible weather. Synoptically,
guidance suggests the trough over the Eastern US develops into a cut-
off upper level low and may retrograde southwestward over the
Coastal Carolinas. If this takes place, we could have a weak
backdoor cold front push east to west across Central AL next
weekend. Effectively, however, this really only leads to daytime
highs going from the upper 80s Wed through Friday to the upper 70s
to mid 80s by Sunday. The drier air mass in place with the northerly
flow should keep rain chances very low (no mention of measurable
rainfall in the forecast) through the weekend.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2024

Multiple cloud decks across the area tonight, but cigs are all
above 3kft at forecast terminals. Localized MVFR cigs are confined
to southeastern Central Alabama near KDYA and KMEI to start the
period, and expect this deck to expand eastward with a period of
MVFR heights at TCL and MGM Monday morning.

Drier air will work into the area from the northeast, and
suppress shower development to the west and south. Chances of rain
are too low at any terminal to include at this time, but
depending on coverage trends, might need to add SHRA to TCL or MGM
for daylight hours on Monday. Cigs will remain predominantly VFR,
with easterly winds at 8-10kts through the day. Winds diminish
Monday evening.

14

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Lower rain chances will persist across the southern and southwestern
portions of Central AL today through Tuesday. Drier conditions with
northerly flow is expected for the second half of the week. Min RHs
will remain generally at or above 50% through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     85  59  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    84  61  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Birmingham  83  64  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  82  64  87  63 /  20  10  10   0
Calera      83  64  86  65 /  20  10  10   0
Auburn      82  64  85  65 /  10  10  10  10
Montgomery  82  65  86  66 /  20  10  20   0
Troy        81  64  84  65 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....25/Owen
AVIATION...14