Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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616 FXUS64 KBMX 151129 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024 A convergent zone remains across Central Alabama this morning, from northwest to southeast. The axis has shifted slightly westward this morning, with most of the heavier showers now just west of where the greatest rain accumulations have occurred (since Saturday morning, 2-5 inches has fallen in a swath from Winston county to Tallapoosa county). Based on observations at EET, rainfall rates in heavier showers this morning are around 1-1.5 inches per hour. The current Flood Watch is set to expire at 7am, and will make a call on whether it will need to be extended in time closer to that expiration time, as well as which counties can be cleared from the watch. That decision will depend on whether the axis continues to shift to areas that have only received 0.50-1.5 inches of rain. The remnant low of Francine will move back to the west today and gradually weaken, as a non-tropical low also moving westward from the Carolina coast toward the central Appalachians. Drier air wrapping around the north and west side of that low will spread into portions of north and east Central Alabama tonight and Monday. The focus for showers will shift to the west and south, with chances lowering each period. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024 Drier weather is on the horizon. Easterly to northeasterly flow builds into the region Monday night into Tuesday as the non-tropical low off the Atlantic Coast moves into the Carolinas. This non-tropical low is highlighted by NHC as having a 50% chance for development before Tuesday. It is expected to stay well to our east, putting us on the drier - northerly to northeasterly flow region. As the overall synoptic pattern transitions to more of a omega blocking pattern Tuesday through Friday, we should stay in this northerly flow regime. While we may see some lower chances for rain showers across the south on Tuesday, the highest rain chances should stay to our south. We`ll then trend to mostly rain-free conditions through the end of the week and into the early part of next weekend. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024 A convergent moisture axis sits northwest to southeast across Central Alabama, and expect continued scattered to numerous showers to develop through the day along and west of this boundary. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Stronger showers/storms will produce heavy rainfall. A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs start the period and do not expect improvement in cig heights until after 21Z. MVFR heights could remain at MGM through the period, as the moisture axis pivots to a more west to east orientation and remains across the southern portions of the area. Easterly winds at 8-10kts will occasionally gust to 22kts today, as the pressure gradient tightens across the area. Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but remain at 6-8kts. NOTE: NIL TAF continues for KANB until further notice due to large comms issue and missing obs. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire Weather High rain chances will continue across the area today through early next week. With the persistent rain, RHs will remain high and soils have become largely saturated in many locations. Easterly winds will continue through the next several days. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 81 63 84 59 / 30 20 20 10 Anniston 81 65 84 61 / 30 20 20 10 Birmingham 79 66 81 63 / 50 30 20 10 Tuscaloosa 78 67 82 64 / 70 50 40 10 Calera 79 67 82 65 / 60 40 30 10 Auburn 79 66 81 64 / 40 30 30 10 Montgomery 79 68 81 65 / 50 50 40 20 Troy 79 66 79 64 / 60 50 40 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for the following counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers- Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette- Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marion-Montgomery-Pike- Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa- Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...14