070
FXUS64 KBMX 031807
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
107 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

This afternoon.

Broad elongated ridging in the mid levels currently extends from
over the Southeast Atlantic Coast westward to over far Southwest
Texas. Surface high pressure extended southwest from over Nova
Scotia into the Carolinas while a weak surface front was analyzed
along far eastern Georgia, delineating cumulus development to the
west and mostly clear skies to the east. Additionally, a weak
Theta-E gradient exists in local analysis fields, separating some
more humid conditions to the south and west from slightly drier
air to the north and east. Skies were partly cloudy generally
areawide at this writing while mostly cloudy skies were observed
on visible satellite across portions of the East-Central and
South-Central Counties.

Partly cloudy skies are expected areawide with some thicker
clouds across the South-Central areas just to the east of a weak
surface trough. Chances for some showers and a few thunderstorms
will exist generally encompassing areas near and southeast of the
Interstate 59 corridor with better chances across the South-
Central Counties and extending eastward into the East-Central and
Southeast areas this afternoon into early evening. Winds will be
from the southeast at 5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from
around 90 in the higher elevations east to the upper 90s across
the far west. The combination of heat with the humidity has
prompted heat advisories to remain in effect until 7 pm tonight
for all but our east-central counties that are in the higher
terrain areas. Peak eat index values could reach to near 108
degrees far west and northwest this afternoon.

Tonight.

The elongated mid-level ridging will remain in place overnight
with surface high pressure extending southwest generally along the
Eastern Seaboard further southwest across the Central Florida
Panhandle. A residual wedge front will be positioned across
portions of eastern South Georgia while a surface cold front
remains to northwest, extending from New York State southwest
across the Central Plains.

Look for partly cloudy skies overnight with a few lingering
showers and a storm or two across the southern third of the area
through early evening. Overnight, some lower clouds may affect
portions of the South-Central and Southeast counties before
sunrise on Independence Day. Winds will be from the south at 2-4
mph. Lows will range from the lower 70s in the higher elevations
east to the mid 70s elsewhere.

Independence Day.

Mid-level ridging looks to contract and migrate westward on
Thursday, with the ridging becoming centered over Louisiana. The
surface front to our northwest remains in place as waves of low
pressure develop along the front across the Midwest while surface
high pressure continues to extend southwest from Offshore of New
England southwest across the Northern Florida Panhandle.

Partly cloudy skies with isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity is forecast with best chances across portions of the
southwest and east. Winds will be from the south to southwest at
5-10 mph. High temperatures will range from the low 90s in the
higher elevations east and northeast to readings in the upper 90s
west and northwest. The combination of heat with humidity will
continue to require heat advisories across the area with heat
index values potentially reaching around 107 degrees across
portions of our western and central counties during the afternoon
hours.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

Based on today`s guidance suite, no major changes have been
introduced to the long-term forecast. Highest rain chances remain in
the forecast during the day on Friday, associated with the shortwave
trough and surface front that will be approaching from the
northwest. Moisture pooling out ahead of the surface front will lead
to dewpoints only mixing down into the mid 70s during the afternoon.
If we`re able to get high temps up into the low and mid 90s, we
should easily see heat indices rise at or above 105 degrees.
However, the widespread nature of convective activity and clouds
that are being advertised by guidance will certainly help counteract
the heat in some locations. We`ll have to see how much in the way of
convective activity will be present during the morning hours.
Widespread showers and storms will slowly move southward through the
evening hours with the potential for scattered storms to linger
through the overnight hours. As the synoptic front continues to move
southward, rain chances will be confined to the southern half of the
area on Saturday with slightly drier dewpoints in the 60s advecting
southward close to the I-85 corridor. The front is still expected to
move back northward by Monday, with scattered to numerous showers
and storms returning to the forecast each day through the end of the
forecast period.

56/GDG

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

Key messages:

- Numerous to widespread showers and storms are expected Friday. A
  couple strong storms with gusty winds are possible. There is
  uncertainty as to whether heat indices will reach 105 degrees
  depending on how quickly storms develop.

- Some drier air may push into northern portions of Central
  Alabama over the weekend. Otherwise, a wetter pattern is
  expected next week with heat indices decreasing to just below
  105 degrees.

Subtropical ridging will weaken and become centered near the
Southeast Atlantic Coast through much of the period, while
troughing amplifies over the Central CONUS downstream of a strong
ridge over California. A seasonally strong shortwave will be
moving through the Midwest and Great Lakes Thursday night and
Friday along with an associated surface low. An associated cold
front will reach the Mid-South by Friday morning. Any lingering
showers and storms at sunset Thursday night should quickly
diminish, but it seems prudent to mention slight chance PoPs
during the evening outdoor activities. Convection will remain
ongoing ahead of the front late Thursday night with a slight
chance that any convection makes it into our northern counties
during the overnight hours. The front will be approaching from the
northwest Friday while a pre-frontal trough may develop further
south over Central Alabama. Westerlies along the base of the
trough will begin to extend down into North Alabama. Forcing from
these features and any boundaries from Thursday night`s convection
along with PWATs above 2 inches will result in numerous to
widespread showers and storms developing by Friday afternoon. Some
guidance suggests an MCS could develop as early as Friday morning
but this remains uncertain. 0-6km bulk shear around 15 to 20 kts
and any expanding cold pools could result in some strong storms
with gusty winds though a lack of dry air aloft and weak mid-level
lapse rates will be a limiting factor for getting anything much
stronger. Uncertainty regarding timing of convection results in an
uncertain heat index forecast, but if storms hold off long enough
then heat indices would reach 105 in the persistent humid air
mass.

Latest guidance has trended a bit more aggressive with the
southward progress of the front before it stalls, indicating some
drier (but still warm) air may make it down into some of the
northern half of Central Alabama over the weekend. Meanwhile, a
moist airmass will result in continued scattered to numerous
showers and storms across at least the southern half of the area
along and south of the front, along with potential for heat
indices near 105 in the southeast counties. The front will lift
back to the north on Monday. A weakness in the ridge over the
south-central CONUS and a moist air mass will result in scattered
to numerous showers and storms with heat indices mainly staying
just under 105. The most likely scenario for Hurricane Beryl per
the latest NHC forecasts and ensembles is for it to dissipate over
southern Texas or northern Mexico, with less and less ensemble
members showing any remnants curving towards us. Were this low
probability scenario to occur, the sensible weather forecast for
Central Alabama probably wouldn`t be that much different, however.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT WED JUL 3 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this cycle. Isolated showers
and a few storms will be possible across portions of our south and
east counties this afternoon into early evening, but potential
was too low to include at any terminal location. Scattered to
broken low clouds will are expected over the south and portions of
the eastern counties tonight into Independence Day. Isolated to
scattered showers with some storms are expected through Thursday
with chances high enough to include at the southern and eastern
sites generally after 15z.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions are expected over the coming days.
Scattered showers and storms are possible today mainly in far
southern portions of Central Alabama. Scattered showers and
storms are possible each afternoon and evening heading into the
weekend. 20-foot winds will average less than 10 mph, from the
southeast to southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  94  74  94 /  10  40  20  90
Anniston    74  93  76  92 /  10  40  20  80
Birmingham  76  95  78  93 /  10  30  20  90
Tuscaloosa  76  96  77  93 /  20  40  20  90
Calera      75  94  77  93 /  20  30  20  80
Auburn      75  91  76  92 /  30  40  10  70
Montgomery  76  96  76  94 /  40  30  10  70
Troy        74  94  74  94 /  40  30  10  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-
Winston.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for the following
counties: Calhoun-Cherokee-Etowah.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....56/GDG
AVIATION...05