845
FXUS65 KBOI 252019
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
219 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...A shortwave
trough will move into the area tonight, bringing a rare
nocturnal convective event to the region. Storms are expected to
develop after 06Z in SE Oregon, and move into SW Idaho after
around 09Z. These storms will be capable of wind gusts 40-50
mph. Storms will continue into Wed afternoon on the Idaho side,
and wind gusts could approach 60 mph in the strongest storms. PW
values increase tonight, so brief heavy rain is also possible in
the strongest storms. As the system departs Wed afternoon, the
PW will decrease rapidly. Winds will increase, especially in SE
Oregon, Wed afternoon. The combination of lightning and stronger
winds has prompted the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for parts
of the area from late tonight through Wed evening (see the Red
Flag Warning for details).

After tonight`s initial shortwave, a larger upper level trough
will move through Thursday. This will bring very few additional
showers, but much cooler air. After temperatures around 10
degrees above normal tomorrow, readings will be around 5 degrees
below normal Thu and again Fri, with Thu being the coolest day.
Northwest winds Thursday afternoon and early evening will be
gusty (15-25 mph) for most areas, and even stronger in the
upper Treasure and western Magic Valleys (25-35 mph).

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...We will remain dry Friday
until Saturday evening as dry NW flow aloft shifts gradually to
SW ahead of a trough developing off the coast. The trough will
gradually move inland through Sunday and cross our area Sunday
night. As this occurs, a chance of precipitation will return
Saturday evening and increase through Sunday afternoon/evening.
Thunderstorms are possible, especially in the higher terrain
and south of the Snake River. We should dry out Monday and
remain dry for Tuesday.

Saturday will be the warmest day of the long term, with temps
5-10 degrees above normal. Otherwise, temperatures should be
around normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude
today. Increasing mid/high level clouds this aft/eve. Scattered
showers will develop late this afternoon and isolated/scattered
thunderstorms will develop late tonight and continue through
Wed afternoon, with outflow gusts of 35-45 kt possible. Surface
winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon, becoming variable less than
10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt,
increasing to 20-30 kt overnight.

KBOI...VFR. Hot temperatures will promote high density altitude
today. Increasing high clouds late this afternoon, then
ceilings lowering to around 10,000 ft AGL late tonight. A 30%
chance of showers/thunderstorms after 26/09Z through Wed
afternoon, with outflow gusts of 35-45 kt possible. Surface
winds: NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, shifting to NE around 26/00Z,
then SE 5-15 kt around 26/04Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP