Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
107 FXUS65 KBOI 140259 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 859 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .DISCUSSION...With moisture streaming in from the southwest ahead of a dry cold front, virga/showers have developed this afternoon and evening across the Southwest Highlands and portions of the Magic Valley. Some have been strong enough to produce lightning. However, webcams and ground observations support that little to no rain has fallen from this activity, and wind gust outflow has not made it above 25 mph at any observation sites. Northwest winds are on track to increase late this evening into Friday due to the strengthening surface pressure gradient with the cold front. High temperatures tomorrow will be roughly 10 degrees cooler than they were today. && .AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Patchy smoke from the Owyhee mountains. Isolated virga/showers from NV will continue south and east of KTWF through around 14/08Z. Little to no rain observed with activity. Gusts up to 20 kt and occasional lightning expected. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt. Gusts 20-30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO beginning after 14/04Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Hazy skies from fire in Owyhee mountains. Surface winds: W to NW 5-12 kt. Gusts to around 20 kt Friday afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing high clouds Saturday, with 15 percent chance of showers in NE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains. Afternoon winds increasing to W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt, except 30-35 kt for KMUO to KJER/KTWF. Mid and high clouds Sunday, with a 30 percent chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains Sunday night. Snow levels 6500-7500 ft MSL. Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Southwest flow aloft could bring just enough moisture out of Nevada for a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of Twin Falls through this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. A pair of `dry` cold fronts, one tonight and another Friday night, will bring a pronounced cooling trend through Saturday as a large low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska moves into the northern Rockies by Saturday. Due to the general eastward track of the low, moisture will remain too far to the north for any appreciable chances of precip, with less than a 20 percent chance of showers in the far north (north of Baker City and McCall) on Saturday. Winds will be gusty at times, especially in south-central Idaho where it will be windy Saturday afternoon. Temperatures cool 5-10 degrees on Friday and another 10-15 degrees on Saturday. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good agreement in depicting a low pressure system in the north Pacific that moves into the Pacific Northwest (including our area) early next week. The track of the low will determine the location and amounts of precip, and it is still too early to pin down with any real confidence. Latest guidance favors a track that would bring the highest precip totals to Baker County and central Idaho. Snow levels also lower to around 6500 feet. There is at least a 60 percent chance of greater than an inch of snowfall above 7000 feet in the northern mountains Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler with the arrival of a cold front as highs will only be in the 60s across the lower valleys Monday and Tuesday. Monday is also looking quite windy with the passage of the cold front. The system exits midweek followed by drier conditions and a gradual warming trend as highs return to near normal on Thursday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SH AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....BW