Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
396 FXUS65 KBOI 152046 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 246 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A spring-like pattern will continue through the short term. Upper level troughing will persist to our north on Sunday, keeping temperatures around 10 degrees below normal with dry conditions. An unseasonably cold and deep upper low (near record cold and deep for mid June) will move from the Washington coast into our area Sunday night and Monday. The low will push another cold front across the area Sunday night, bringing even cooler temperatures and lowering snow levels. Precipitation will increase across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho Sunday night with the bulk of the rain and snow late Sunday night and Monday. The low center is currently favored to move east near McCall, keeping the highest (60-80%) chance of showers across the central Idaho mountains. This will result in only a 15-30% chance of rain in the Treasure Valley with less than a 10% chance in the Magic Valley. Snow levels will fall to 4500-6000 feet by Monday morning, with 2-6 inches of snow possible at elevations above 6000 feet. Rain may mix with snow in McCall Monday morning although little to no snow accumulation is expected. A 10-20% chance of thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon across the mountains. Showers will taper off by Monday evening as the low center moves east. High temperatures on Monday will be around 15-20 degrees below normal. Winds will be gusty behind the cold front, with peak gusts 25-40 mph, except up to 50 mph east of Mountain Home into the Camas Prairie and Magic Valley. Winds will subside Monday evening. Low temperatures Monday night will be quite cool, generally in the lower 40s in the Treasure Valley, but potentially dipping into the mid to upper 30s from near Mountain Home east through the Magic Valley. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level trough will remain overhead on Tuesday, but will be much weaker than Monday`s system. Temperatures should rebound around 10 degrees from Monday, but will still be 5-10 degrees below normal. Lingering moisture will result in a 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the central Idaho mountains Tuesday afternoon with dry conditions elsewhere. The upper level trough will continue to weaken through the end of the week with southwest flow aloft returning. This will allow temperatures to warm several degrees each day, reaching around 10 degrees above normal by Friday and Saturday. Conditions will remain dry with generally light winds. && .AVIATION...VFR with mid and high level clouds. There is a 15-30 percent chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho mountains Sunday night. Snow levels lowering to 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, diminishing to 5- 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt by Sun/06Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15- 30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt diminishing to less than 10 kt by Sun/04Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST AVIATION.....BW