Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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190
FXUS65 KBOI 141558
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
958 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...Breezy westerly winds are increasing across the
region this morning ahead of a frontal passage expected later
this evening. Recent hi-res model guidance indicates that
showers and weak thunderstorms will form over the Steens
Mountains around 3-5pm MDT, so have updated probability of
precipitation and thunderstorm coverage to reflect changes.
Otherwise, light showers and high based thunderstorms will
likely move into southwest Idaho by later this evening (7-9pm
MDT) bringing a chance of strong outflow winds. Temperatures
will be a few degrees above normal today ahead of the cooler
system coming in this weekend. Other than precipitation chance
changes, no updates necessary to the current forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. A slight chance of showers
thunderstorms Fri/22Z through Sat/06Z, though confidence is low
(less than 20 percent). Patchy smoke from the Owyhee mountains.
Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low confidence (10 percent chance) of
showers/thunderstorms between Sat/01Z and Sat/06Z. Hazy skies from
fires in Owyhee mountains. Surface winds: W to NW 8-12 kt with gusts
to around 20 kt.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing high clouds Saturday, with 15
percent chance of showers in NE Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains north of KBKE-KMYL. Afternoon winds increasing to W-NW 10-
20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt. Mid and high clouds Sunday, with a 30
percent chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains late Sunday night. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft MSL. Surface
winds on Sunday W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 15-25 kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A weak shortwave has
moved through the area this morning, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms from the lower Treasure Valley through the west
central ID mountains. Drier air will move into the area this
morning ending the shower threat through the day. Another
shortwave moves through on Friday night into early Saturday
morning, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front will move through on Saturday, lowering temperatures
10-15 degrees from today, and another 3-5 degrees of cooling on
Sunday. An unseasonably cool upper level trough over southwest
Canada will strengthen the pressure gradient on Saturday and
Sunday, with breezy northwest winds during the afternoon both
days. Showers will generally stay north of the area on Saturday
and Sunday. The trough over the Pacific NW will begin to move
southeastward on Sunday night with a slight chance of showers
developing.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper low is still forecast
to move through our area Monday through Tuesday. There is some model
variation in the depth of the low and whether it becomes closed or
not. However, cooler and wetter weather overall is likely.
Precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday are 20-30% for lower
valleys and 30-50% for higher terrain. As some models are beginning
to show a closed low forming, snow levels have been reduced slightly
from the NBM and are currently 6000-7000 ft MSL. This change
increased the coverage of mixed/snowy precipitation for mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible in afternoon instability on Monday. A
cold front associated with the low will bring windy conditions
Monday afternoon, with gusts to 30-40 mph. The front will cool temps
all the way down to 15-20 degrees below normal on Monday, before a
warming trend kicks in for the rest of the long term. Following the
exit of the low, the flow becomes briefly zonal on Wednesday before
becoming southwesterly through the rest of the long term. The drier
southwesterly flow will warm us up to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Friday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...SA
AVIATION.....BW
SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM