070
FXUS65 KBOI 140925
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
325 AM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A weak shortwave has
moved through the area this morning, with isolated showers and
thunderstorms from the lower Treasure Valley through the west
central ID mountains. Drier air will move into the area this
morning ending the shower threat through the day. Another
shortwave moves through on Friday night into early Saturday
morning, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A
cold front will move through on Saturday, lowering temperatures
10-15 degrees from today, and another 3-5 degrees of cooling on
Sunday. An unseasonably cool upper level trough over southwest
Canada will strengthen the pressure gradient on Saturday and
Sunday, with breezy northwest winds during the afternoon both
days. Showers will generally stay north of the area on Saturday
and Sunday. The trough over the Pacific NW will begin to move
southeastward on Sunday night with a slight chance of showers
developing.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...An upper low is still forecast
to move through our area Monday through Tuesday. There is some model
variation in the depth of the low and whether it becomes closed or
not. However, cooler and wetter weather overall is likely.
Precipitation chances Monday through Tuesday are 20-30% for lower
valleys and 30-50% for higher terrain. As some models are beginning
to show a closed low forming, snow levels have been reduced slightly
from the NBM and are currently 6000-7000 ft MSL. This change
increased the coverage of mixed/snowy precipitation for mountains.
Thunderstorms will be possible in afternoon instability on Monday. A
cold front associated with the low will bring windy conditions
Monday afternoon, with gusts to 30-40 mph. The front will cool temps
all the way down to 15-20 degrees below normal on Monday, before a
warming trend kicks in for the rest of the long term. Following the
exit of the low, the flow becomes briefly zonal on Wednesday before
becoming southwesterly through the rest of the long term. The drier
southwesterly flow will warm us up to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated storms over the West Central
Mtns dissipating by Fri/11Z. Otherwise VFR and mostly clear. Showers
and isolated storms may redevelop Fri/22Z through Sat/06Z, though
confidence is low. Patchy smoke from the Owyhee mountains. Surface
winds: Becoming W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt Friday morning
through the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Low confidence in showers/storms between Sat/01Z and
Sat/06Z. Hazy skies from fire in Owyhee mountains. Surface winds: W
to NW 5-12 kt. Gusts to around 20 kt Friday afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing high clouds Saturday, with 15
percent chance of showers in NE Oregon and w-central Idaho
mountains, mostly north of our area. Afternoon winds increasing to W-
NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt. Mid and high clouds Sunday, with
a 30 percent chance of rain/snow showers in SE Oregon and w-central
Idaho mountains late Sunday night. Snow levels 6000-7000 ft MSL.
Surface winds on Sunday W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 15-25
kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....JM