Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
126 FXUS65 KBOI 180239 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 839 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have decreased markedly in areal coverage and intensity since 7 PM MDT, and this trend is expected to continue through the remainder of the evening. This was all covered well by the previous forecast. The only change needed at this time is to add fog for mountain-valleys overnight and into Wed morning. Update out shortly. && .AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Areas of MVFR in showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly in southwest Idaho through 18/06z. Gusts up to 30 kt with the stronger storms. Fog development likely in the mountain valleys tonight with a 90% chance at KMYL. Surface winds: W- NW 5-10 kt gusts to 25 kt in SE Oregon, becoming generally variable 5-10 kt overnight. Winds at 10kft: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...Mostly VFR. Stratus and fog development unlikely tonight (less then 10% chance). Surface winds: Variable 5 kt or less overnight and through at least 16Z Wed. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms in Idaho will taper off this evening and end after midnight. The closed upper low responsible for the precipitation will move northeast into Montana tomorrow allowing for mostly dry weather to return to the area on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be a little warmer each day with more sunshine in the afternoons, but still running a few degrees below seasonal normals. An new upper level trough currently along the west coast will close off into an upper level low and move well south of the forecast area and is not expected to have much impact in southwestern Idaho or southeastern Oregon. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Dry weather will continue through the upcoming weekend with zonal westerly upper level winds or a weak upper level ridge over the area at times. Model uncertainty increases into early next week, but most model runs favor dry and mild weather continuing with mild temperatures ranging from near normal to a few degrees below normal for this time of year. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....SP SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB