329
FXUS65 KBOI 072001
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
201 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...A weak wave in
Nevada will bring unsettled conditions to far SE Oregon and the
ID-NV border. Thunderstorms will develop around noon today and
last until around sunset. Storms may produce heavy rain and
gusty outflow winds, with the highest confidence for outflow
winds along the ID-NV border and southern Twin Falls county.
Outflow gusts will generally range from 40-50 mph, but there is
a 5% chance for a gust up to 60 mph. After sunset, isolated
showers may continue to impact SE Oregon, especially Harney
county. High temps today of 10 degrees above normal warm to 15
degrees above normal on Saturday. Although, there has been some
variability in the high forecast for Saturday so a few locations
could end up warmer or cooler than expected. Saturday night
through Sunday night will be the most active precipitation day
coming up as an upper trough moves through. Precipitation
chances throughout the day range from 15-35%, with some pockets
of 40-50% chances in the Boise Mtns, West Central Mtns, and
southern Twin falls. Thunderstorms will be possible throughout
the area Sunday afternoon/evening. The strongest storms are most
likely south of Twin Falls, where the SPC has a Marginal risk
for severe weather. Temps will drop with the upper low on
Sunday back to 10 degrees above normal and hold steady there for
the long term.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...The long term is mostly
warm and dry as a low amplitude ridge develops. The flow is
mostly westerly, with a few brief periods of west-southwesterly.
This will keep temps around 10 degrees above normal each day.
A southwesterly flow dominates Thursday through Friday as deep
upper low moves down from the Gulf of Alaska. As it moves into
the area, a closed low south of California may interact with the
Alaskan low to bring some moisture and favorable dynamics.
However, the current forecast shows a much drier interaction,
with chances of precip below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of a KBNO-KTWF until Sat/03Z, mainly near the Nevada border.
Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 kt possible from storms.
Surface winds: 5-15 kt, except gusty near storms. Winds at 10k ft
MSL: SW-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. NW up to 10 kt becoming variable 5 kt or less after
Sat/03Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening across SE Oregon
and near the ID/NV border spreading to all areas Sunday. Stronger
showers and thunderstorms will produce brief MVFR conditions with
heavy rain and gusty winds. Otherwise, surface winds generally W-NW
5-15 kt.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION.....BW