749
FXUS65 KBOI 140029 CCA
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
228 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Southwest flow
aloft could bring just enough moisture out of Nevada for a
slight chance of showers/thunderstorms south of Twin Falls
through this evening. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail. A pair
of `dry` cold fronts, one tonight and another Friday night, will
bring a pronounced cooling trend through Saturday as a large
low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska moves into the
northern Rockies by Saturday. Due to the general eastward track
of the low, moisture will remain too far to the north for any
appreciable chances of precip, with less than a 20 percent
chance of showers in the far north (north of Baker City and
McCall) on Saturday. Winds will be gusty at times, especially in
south-central Idaho where it will be windy Saturday afternoon.
Temperatures cool 5-10 degrees on Friday and another 10-15
degrees on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models remain in good
agreement in depicting a low pressure system in the north
Pacific that moves into the Pacific Northwest (including our
area) early next week. The track of the low will determine the
location and amounts of precip, and it is still too early to pin
down with any real confidence. Latest guidance favors a track
that would bring the highest precip totals to Baker County and
central Idaho. Snow levels also lower to around 6500 feet. There
is at least a 60 percent chance of greater than an inch of
snowfall above 7000 feet in the northern mountains Monday
through Tuesday. Temperatures will be much cooler with the
arrival of a cold front as highs will only be in the 60s across
the lower valleys Monday and Tuesday. Monday is also looking
quite windy with the passage of the cold front. The system exits
midweek followed by drier conditions and a gradual warming
trend as highs return to near normal on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Isolated -TSRA southeast of
Owyhee/NV to KTWF 13/22Z through 14/06Z. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15
kt. Gusts 20-30 kt KBKE-KONO-KMUO after 14/06Z as a dry cold front
moves through. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-13 kt, increasing
to 10-15kt after 14/12Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Increasing clouds AOA 15 kft MSL
Saturday with NW surface winds 10-20kt and afternoon gusts to 30
kt. Broken to overcast clouds AOA 12 kft Sunday. A 30 percent
chance of rain and snow showers in SE Oregon and the West
Central ID Mountains Sunday night with snow level lowering to 7
kft MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....BW
AVIATION.....LC