468
FXUS65 KBOU 120253
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
853 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather are expected
  Wednesday and Thursday.

- Snowmelt producing minor impacts from high streams, mainly in
  Grand County.

- Slightly cooler conditions will arrive Friday and Saturday with
  scattered showers and storms. Some of these storms could be
  strong to severe along the plains with heavy rain on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The isolated showers that formed earlier this evening have
dissipated. There are no weather concerns the rest of the night.
The fire at Twin Lakes may impact temperatures in southern Park
County tomorrow. No changes were made to the forecast at this time
but adding smoke to the grids and lowering the temperatures might
need to happen tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Isolated Convection has developed over the southern third of the
CWA this afternoon. Elsewhere there are a few convective clouds
over the far northeast corner and over the rest of the mountains.
Temperatures have made it into the mid 80s over the plains.

Models have the lion`s share of convection over the southern CWA
this evening.  Some of the high resolution models do have isolated
storms over the rest of the CWA for a couple hours this early evening.
Convection looks to be over for all the CWA by 05Z/06Z.

The upper ridge to our south builds into Colorado on Wednesday.
Thickness grids point to Wednesday`s highs being 2-6 C warmer than
they are today.  Available moisture decreases a bit on Wednesday and
there is little measurable precipitation noted on the QPF fields for
Wednesday. Will go with minimal to no pops on Wednesday for our
CWA. Wednesday`s high temperatures will be well into the 90s F
over the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Upper level high pressure building over the Central and Southern
Rockies will bring continued hot and dry weather to much of North
Central and Northeastern Colorado on Thursday. Models are showing a
cold front moving across Northeastern Colorado Thursday morning
which should keep temperatures from getting too hot, especially
across the far northeastern counties. Max temperatures across the
Front Range Urban Corridor will probably manage to reach the lower
to mid 90s while the far northeastern plains may not climb out of
the 80s.

The atmosphere should be somewhat stable and capped behind the
frontal passage which should limit precipitation chances. However,
some of the models are showing some convection across the plains
east of Denver by late afternoon due to moisture convergence. If the
storms manage to develop, they could become strong with some hail
and heavy rainfall possible.

On Friday, the weather becomes more active as an upper level
shortwave ejects out of the Desert Southwest into Colorado.
Increased moisture and lift associated with the upper wave will
result in scattered to numerous showers and storms across the
forecast area. With plenty of instability (Cape`s of 1000-3500 J/KG)
and shear (35+KTs), some of the storms across the eastern plains
will likely become severe. In addition, with high PW`s ranging
from an inch across the Front Range Urban Corridor to over 1.50"
across the far northeastern plains, heavy rainfall will be
possible. However, storms should be moving at a pretty good clip
which should limit the flooding potential.

Drier weather is expected on Saturday as the upper level shortwave
moves east of the state. However, there should be enough lingering
moisture combined with daytime to produce isolated to scattered
afternoon and early evening showers and storms.

Mostly dry and warm to hot conditons are expected to continue Sunday
through Tuesday as upper level troughing develops over the Western
U.S. and a dry southwesterly flow aloft sets up over colorado.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday/...
Issued at 551 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An outflow boundary has moved across DEN and APA this evening
with moderate southeast winds behind it. This boundary has created
a couple of very weak showers and these showers could get within
10 miles or so of the terminals. Impacts should be minimal but a
gust to 35 knots can`t be completely ruled out.

Winds will trend towards drainage later this evening with healthy
wind speeds. There will be light and variable winds throughout the
day tomorrow. There is a small potential for virga showers to form
tomorrow afternoon. These could produce gusty winds at the
terminals but the chance of them developing seems low enough such
that no mention of VCSH or VCTS was included in the TAFs.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

This late afternoon and evening`s convection could bring brief
heavy downpours but the storms are moving. The threat of flooding
is not significant for the next 12 hours.

Elevated flows continue across the upper Colorado River basin.
Remain alert of the dangers of these cold flows, and be aware of
any Flood Advisories and Warnings. Flow may increase late this
week as warmer temperatures and scattered showers return to the
area.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Danielson
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...Danielson
HYDROLOGY....JK/RJK