956
FXUS65 KBOU 241730
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1130 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot with Heat Advisory Today and Tuesday for the Denver Metro.

- High based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with gusty
  winds.

- Slight cool down and increased chances for thunderstorms
  Wedneday and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temps were already in the upper 80s to lower 90s this morning over
nern CO.  So aftn highs in the upper 90`s to lower 100`s look on
track for the plains.

Meanwhile, there is enough lingering moisture in the mid levels to
produce sct high based showers and storms this aftn into the early
evening hours. With decent T-TD spreads across the plains combined
with DCAPE around 1500 j/kg, expect a few of the higher based
storms may produce wind gusts from 50-60 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures across the plains are in the upper 60s to lower 70s F at
09Z this morning. That is a tad warmer then yesterday`s readings
were at this time. Current satellite pictures are showing fairly
decent cloudiness over the southwestern U.S. and there are even
some showers on area radars.

Models keep the upper ridge axis right over Colorado today and
tonight.  Both temperature and thickness fields point to afternoon
highs to be a tad warmer today than yesterday.  However,
precipitable water proggs are in the 0.50 to 1.20 inches over the
CWA today.  CAPE values are fair.  Most models are showing more
cloudiness and convection for the CWA this afternoon compared to
Sunday.  Will leave the pops in the 20-40% range for most of the CWA
this afternoon.  Soundings show the storms will be pretty high based
with limited rainfall but plenty of outflow wind.

Temperatures will still get hot this morning with few clouds around
so the Heat Advisory is okay.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather Tuesday
with another very warm day across the area. Highs across northeast
Colorado are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s again. A weak
cold front pushes south through the area during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to fall a few degrees behind
it. However, it doesn`t look like moisture increases with the
front. The slightly cooler air may help stable`s the airmass.
Still expected isolated/scattered high based showers and
thunderstorms. However, coverage should be less than today.

The ridge shifts south a little for Wednesday. Subtropical
moisture increases through the day with precipitable water values
climbing to three-quarters over the higher terrain and above an
inch over the lower elevations. This is about 120-180 percent of
normal. Expect to see an increase in showers and thunderstorms,
especially if a short wave trough moves across Colorado, like the
00Z GFS shows. Stronger thunderstorms will be possible with heavy
rainfall and small hail. An isolated severe thunderstorm could
occur over the plains where SBCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures won`t be as hot with highs in
the lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado.

Upper level ridge continues to retreat to the south on Thursday.
Not much change to the airmass for Thursday with warm and moist
conditions in place. Expected another round of afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce heavy rain
and small hail. Temperatures take a small step lower with highs
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will be well off
to the southeast with westerly flow aloft. An upper level trough
passes north of Colorado, but a cold front associated with this
system dives south across Colorado bringing cooler temperatures
for Saturday. Highs Saturday are expected to be the coolest this
upcoming week with highs in the mid 80s. Airmass continues to be
on the moist side both days. Saturday may end up capped,
especially over the northeast plains. Will continue mentioning
scattered showers and thunderstorms for both days, though have the
lowest PoPs over the northeast plains on Saturday.

The ridge off the southeast strengthens and begins to move
westward Sunday. Highs are expected to bounce back into the lower
to mid 90s over northeast Colorado for Sunday. The airmass starts
to dry out as well, thus will trend PoPs lower.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Winds were mainly variable in direction at 17z but should turn
more north by 18z and then NE by 20z.  Widely sct high based
showers and storms will be possible between 21z and 01z with
gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.  After 01z shower/tstm threat
should end with south or southeast winds which will become
drainage overnight. Overall, expect VFR conditions thru the
period with brief ceilings down to 8000-9000 ft as a high based
shower or storm moves across.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ039.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....Meier
AVIATION...RPK