708
FXUS65 KBOU 240900
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
300 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot with Heat Advisory Today and Tuesday for the Denver Metro.

- Slight cool down and increased chances for thunderstorms
  Wedneday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Temperatures across the plains are in the upper 60s to lower 70s F at
09Z this morning. That is a tad warmer then yesterday`s readings
were at this time. Current satellite pictures are showing fairly
decent cloudiness over the southwestern U.S. and there are even
some showers on area radars.

Models keep the upper ridge axis right over Colorado today and
tonight.  Both temperature and thickness fields point to afternoon
highs to be a tad warmer today than yesterday.  However,
precipitable water proggs are in the 0.50 to 1.20 inches over the
CWA today.  CAPE values are fair.  Most models are showing more
cloudiness and convection for the CWA this afternoon compared to
Sunday.  Will leave the pops in the 20-40% range for most of the CWA
this afternoon.  Soundings show the storms will be pretty high based
with limited rainfall but plenty of outflow wind.

Temperatures will still get hot this morning with few clouds around
so the Heat Advisory is okay.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather Tuesday
with another very warm day across the area. Highs across northeast
Colorado are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s again. A weak
cold front pushes south through the area during the mid to late
afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to fall a few degrees behind
it. However, it doesn`t look like moisture increases with the
front. The slightly cooler air may help stable`s the airmass.
Still expected isolated/scattered high based showers and
thunderstorms. However, coverage should be less than today.

The ridge shifts south a little for Wednesday. Subtropical
moisture increases through the day with precipitable water values
climbing to three-quarters over the higher terrain and above an
inch over the lower elevations. This is about 120-180 percent of
normal. Expect to see an increase in showers and thunderstorms,
especially if a short wave trough moves across Colorado, like the
00Z GFS shows. Stronger thunderstorms will be possible with heavy
rainfall and small hail. An isolated severe thunderstorm could
occur over the plains where SBCAPE reaches 1000-2000 J/kg
Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures won`t be as hot with highs in
the lower to mid 90s over northeast Colorado.

Upper level ridge continues to retreat to the south on Thursday.
Not much change to the airmass for Thursday with warm and moist
conditions in place. Expected another round of afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could produce heavy rain
and small hail. Temperatures take a small step lower with highs
reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s.

For Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge will be well off
to the southeast with westerly flow aloft. An upper level trough
passes north of Colorado, but a cold front associated with this
system dives south across Colorado bringing cooler temperatures
for Saturday. Highs Saturday are expected to be the coolest this
upcoming week with highs in the mid 80s. Airmass continues to be
on the moist side both days. Saturday may end up capped,
especially over the northeast plains. Will continue mentioning
scattered showers and thunderstorms for both days, though have the
lowest PoPs over the northeast plains on Saturday.

The ridge off the southeast strengthens and begins to move
westward Sunday. Highs are expected to bounce back into the lower
to mid 90s over northeast Colorado for Sunday. The airmass starts
to dry out as well, thus will trend PoPs lower.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1202 AM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Fairly weak drainage winds can be expected at DIA into mid Monday
morning. Normal diurnal wind patterns are expected after that for
the rest of Monday. Most models show some afternoon convection so
will go with a VCSH along with a TEMPO VRB18G36KT for the outflow
potential. There will be no ceiling issues.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening
for COZ039.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for
COZ040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TER.M...Meier
AVIATION.....RJK