Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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768 FXUS65 KBOU 231726 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures return today. - A dry cold front arrives tonight. - Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant precipitation chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1042 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 It was a cool morning across the area with temperatures falling into 40s over most of northeast Colorado. A few low lying area dipped into the 30s. Temperatures are rebounding nicely under sunny skies. Highs are still on track to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s over northeast Colorado. High clouds increase late this afternoon and into this evening as an upper level trough passes to the northeast of Colorado. A weak cold front pushes south across eastern Colorado tonight, bringing a wind shift to the north and slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday. Current forecast on track with no changes planned. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/... Issued at 328 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Ample amounts of dry air can be spotted on GOES-18 mid level water vapor satellite imagery this morning. Mostly sunny skies will occur over northeastern Colorado through this afternoon. As our region transitions to an upper level ridge pattern, 700mb temperature advection displays warm air across the forecast area. Afternoon temperatures range from 71-82F for the urban corridor and plains. Mountains and valleys increase between 51-65F this afternoon. Cross sections indicate an increase of mid level moisture this evening resulting in mostly cloudy skies overnight tonight. Additionally, a cold front lacking precipitation will arrive tonight. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/... Issued at 328 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A persistent upper level ridge will dominate the entire long term period, leading to a several day stretch of mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures across our forecast area. Tuesday will more than likely be the "coolest" day of the work week behind the weak/dry cold front. Still, that means temperatures in the upper 70s across most of the plains. We`ll start the day mostly cloudy, but there should be a gradual decrease in cloud cover through the day leaving partly cloudy skies by the evening. The upper ridge will strengthen a bit by the middle of the week, and should be pretty stationary, wedged in between an upper low to our east and a broad trough axis over the West coast. There`s little if any moisture aloft and sunny skies will prevail on Wednesday and Thursday. Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week, but guidance has backed off a touch on temperatures - still in the mid to upper 80s, but lower chances of breaking 90 again. As we get into next weekend, the ridge should slowly break down, with a slight increase in moisture. It doesn`t look like this will contribute to much if any precipitation, though 90th percentile QPF from the 00z ensembles do have a few hundredths across the mountains on Friday. The next hope at a trough or cold front may come as we get into next week, but that`s too far out to have any hope. In the meantime, we`ll just wait. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/... Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR to prevail through tonight and Tuesday. Mid and high clouds to increase after 00Z Tuesday as an upper level system passes northeast of Colorado. Winds will generally be on the weak side (less than 15 knots) through Tuesday. A cold front will bring a wind shift to the north late this evening 03-05Z. Winds then settle a southerly drainage direction towards 12Z Tuesday. North of 8-15 knots winds return by 18Z Tuesday. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Meier SHORT TERM...AD LONG TERM...Hiris AVIATION...Meier