374
FXUS65 KBOU 232008
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
208 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dry cold front arrives tonight.

- Warmer and drier this upcoming week with no significant
  precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

An upper level trough dives south-southeast across the Northern
and Central Plains tonight with a closed low forming over
Missouri. As this system drops southward, a weak cold front will
move south through eastern Colorado tonight. We will see clouds
increase this evening, but the low levels stay dry. Dew points
behind the front in Wyoming are currently in the 20s and low 30s,
so no precipitation is expected behind the front tonight. Main
feature from the cold front will be a wind shift to the north late
this evening. Increased cloud cover along with north winds will
hold temperatures up tonight with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s
over northeast Colorado, roughly 4 to 8 degrees warmer than last
night. For Tuesday, not much cold air behind the front with highs
only a few degrees cooler than today. Highs across northeast
Colorado are expected to be in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Monday/...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The extended forecast is still on track to bring above normal
temperatures and dry conditions to the forecast area as a 500mb
ridge builds over the western CONUS. An upper-level low is forecast
to setup somewhere near the Mississippi River Valley region by
Tuesday night where it is expected to remain through the forecast
period. A slight retrograde is anticipated with the
aforementioned low around Thursday morning, as an expected
tropical system makes landfall somewhere along the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico. These two systems to our east will keep the
center of the 500mb ridge anchored over the Four Corners region
through the end of the week as they block it from moving east.
High temperatures are forecast to reach values 10-15 degrees above
the norm through Sunday, with near record breaking temperatures
expected across portions of the plains on Thursday. With mostly
clear skies expected through the middle of the week, we can expect
efficient solar heating and radiative cooling to keep days warm
and nights cool. With the dry airmass in place, no precipitation
is expected.


While it is still a ways out, latest deterministic guidance hints at
the ridge shifting east, and southwest flow aloft returning by
the beginning of next week, as a trough enters the PNW. By Monday,
a cold front potentially passes through Colorado from north to
south bringing increased winds and dropping temperatures down to
near normal to begin October.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR to prevail through tonight and Tuesday. Mid and high clouds to
increase after 00Z Tuesday as an upper level system passes
northeast of Colorado. Winds will generally be on the weak side
(less than 15 knots) through Tuesday. A cold front will bring a
wind shift to the north late this evening 03-05Z. Winds then
settle a southerly drainage direction towards 12Z Tuesday. North
of 8-15 knots winds return by 18Z Tuesday.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Meier
LONG TERM...Bonner
AVIATION...Meier