Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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747 FXUS64 KBRO 200551 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Key Messages: -Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf of Mexico this morning. -Periods of heavy rain will continue through the period. Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to be the main focus for the short term period with Alberto expected to make landfall Thursday morning in northeastern Mexico. While the storm will make landfall well south of the CWA, the broad wind-field of Tropical Storm force winds has prompted Tropical Storm Warnings for all of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron counties. Winds will continue to increase through the rest of today and this evening, especially along the coast, where gusts could exceed 45 mph. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the period and the WPC has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall today and a slight risk Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat of flash flooding through the period. Generally an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected for much of the region through Thursday night. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially in areas that see multiple bands of heavy rainfall. Additionally the enhancement of low-level shear profile through this evening will present a threat for some brief tornadoes. The SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep South Texas. Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf, Rip Currents, and moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to impact Deep South Texas for the first part of the long term period as rain lingers into Friday. Rain chances will continue into this weekend and next week as another area of disturbed weather in the southern Bay of Campeche. This area of disturbed weather along with mid/upper level high pressure over the southern Plains into the SE U.S. will continue to lead to east/southeasterly flow helping to funnel tropical moisture into the region. Current forecast shows another 2 to 4 inches (locally higher amounts) Friday through Tuesday. Currently the NHC has this system at a 30% chance of development in the next 5 days. While temperature have not been quite so high thanks to the tropical system, next week temperatures will slowly climb back into the 90s and "feels like" temperatures will creep back up into the upper 90s and 100s. Beach conditions will improve over the weekend as seas begin to diminish in the wake of Tropical Storm Alberto. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue to produce intermittent MVFR to IFR conditions as the outer bands of Tropical Storm Alberto continue to move through the area. Some improvement is expected through the day as the Tropical Storm moves inland and likely weakens. Heavy rain produced by these bands may briefly lower visibilities. Finally, a Tropical Storm Warning is still in place for BRO and HRL, and both sites may continue to see Tropical Storm-Force wind gusts. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Tropical Storm Alberto will continue to lead to hazardous marine conditions through the remainder of the week. Tropical Storm force winds are expected to persist through at least Thursday afternoon with seas remaining in the 12-16 foot range through tonight and slowly lowering through the weekend. By Monday seas of 4 to 5 feet are expected. Another system may potentially develop over the weekend in the Bay of Campeche leading to additional showers and thunderstorms into early next week which could locally enhance winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 91 78 89 / 80 90 90 90 HARLINGEN 77 91 74 90 / 80 90 80 90 MCALLEN 78 91 77 90 / 80 90 70 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 89 75 87 / 80 90 70 80 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 86 82 85 / 90 90 90 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 78 88 / 80 90 80 90 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454- 455. Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-353>355- 451-454-455. Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ351- 354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455. High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...60-BE