949
FXUS64 KBRO 271125 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

500 mb high pressure, initially centered over New Mexico, will
ease east into northern Texas during the period while remaining
the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. However, a weak, inverted,
mid-level trough slipping under the ridge, combined with
precipitable water values increasing to over two inches, will
result in isolated to scattered convection over portions of Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the daylight hours,
with additional convection over the adjacent coastal waters at
night.

Temperature-wise, above normal values are anticipated. Heat indices
will approach established HEAT ADVISORY criteria today and tomorrow,
with the greatest chance for a HEAT ADVISORY progged for Friday.
However, time duration and areal coverage may be limiting factors,
so for now, will cover the heat indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT today and possibly again tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

A mid-level ridge will remain over Texas through much of the period,
sliding slightly eastward by midweek. A series of mid-level inverted
shortwaves will propagate westward along the southern periphery of
the 500mb ridge through the weekend and into next week. Energy
associated with these shortwaves combined with daytime heating may
allow for shower/thunderstorm activity each afternoon. The best
opportunity for rainfall during the long term will be on Sunday,
with generally a 40 to 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms across all of Deep South Texas.

Temperatures will remain near normal each day, and heat indices may
reach 100-111 degrees in a few isolated locations for a brief period
of time, mainly through Saturday. Heat Advisories are not
anticipated. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning through
the period.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave over the
central Carribean that will propagate westward into the Bay of
Campeche this weekend. Currently there is a 20 chance of development
on this disturbance in the next 7 days. Forecasts continue to show
little to no development of this system, but will continue to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

No changes needed to the previous issuance of TAFs. MVFR to VFR
conditions will continue at the aerodromes through the next 24
hours. A TEMPO remains for BRO and HRL due to the possibility of
afternoon convection. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with light to
moderate winds are also anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Today through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds
around 18 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas of 3 feet
with a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Light to moderate
winds and low to moderate seas are expected along the Lower Texas
Coast through the period with high pressure in control over the
western Gulf of Mexico. While Small Craft Advisory is not likely,
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be entirely ruled out.

Friday night through Tuesday....Onshore flow will continue through
the forecast period. Caution conditions are expected through the
weekend with winds of 15 to 20 knots. Winds will decrease Sunday
night into Monday with favorable conditions through Tuesday. Waves
of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  94  82 /  40  20  20  10
HARLINGEN               95  78  96  79 /  30   0  20   0
MCALLEN                 96  81  97  81 /  20  10  20   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         96  79  96  81 /  10   0  10   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      89  83  89  84 /  20  20  20  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  80  92  81 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$