652
FXUS64 KBRO 270532 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1232 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The mid-level ridge will continue to be the driving force for the
weather of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley as it moves
eastward. A weak surface high over the Gulf of Mexico will help
maintain the offshore flow that will help bring in some moisture to
the region. PWATs are expected to increase to around 2 inches
tomorrow as more moisture moves into the region. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are possible during the short term forecast
period, mainly along any sort of developing sea breeze.

As for the temperatures, high temperatures for tomorrow are expected
to be in the range of mid to upper 90s. Thanks to the amount of
moisture in the atmosphere, it will certainly feel hotter with heat
indices in the triple digits. However, does not look like a Heat
Advisory will be needed. As for the low temperatures, for tonight,
the lows are generally expected to be in the 70s with a few places
in the 80s. However tomorrow night, the low temperatures for most of
the Middle and Lower Rio Grande Valley will be in the 80s, while the
rest of the area will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Mid level high pressure will remain over Texas through much of the
period, sliding slightly eastward by midweek. At the same time a
midlevel inverted shortwave will propagate westward moving into Deep
South Texas/Northern Mexico on Friday. Energy associated with this
shortwave will allow for shower/thunderstorm activity into Friday
afternoon. As continued shortwaves move through the southern
periphery of the ridge through the weekend and next week, rain
chances will continue. The best chance of rainfall through the long
term period will be on Sunday with generally a 40 to 50 percent
chance of precipitation throughout Deep South Texas.

Temperatures will remain near normal each day, and heat indices may
reach 100-111 degrees in a few isolated locations for a brief period
of time, mainly through Saturday. Heat Advisories are not
anticipated. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning through
the period.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave over the
central Carribean that will propagate westward into the Bay of
Campeche this weekend. Currently there is a 20 chance of development
on this disturbance in the next 7 days. Forecasts continue to show
little to no development of this system, but will continue to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail at the aerodromes through the
next 24 hours. A TEMPO has been included for BRO and HRL based on
the HRRR model guidance. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with light
to moderate winds are also anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight through Thursday Night...High pressure over the eastern Gulf
will help to maintain a light to moderate southeasterly flow with
moderate seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over
the waters through Thursday night.

Friday through Tuesday....Onshore flow will continue through the
forecast period. Caution conditions are expected through the
weekend with winds of 15 to 20 kts. Winds will decrease Sunday
night into Monday with favorable conditions through Tuesday. Waves
of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  94  82  94 /  20  20  10  20
HARLINGEN               78  96  79  96 /  10  20   0  10
MCALLEN                 81  97  82  98 /   0  10   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         79  95  81  97 /   0  10   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  89  84  88 /  20  10  10  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  92  81  92 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$