195
FXUS64 KBRO 190904
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
404 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The short term period will continue to be dominated by a
developing tropical disturbance over the Southern Gulf. The NHC
continues to forecast this system making landfall as a Tropical
Storm along the Mexican coast. A broad wind field extending to the
north of the circulation will bring the threat of Tropical Storm-
Force winds to the coastal counties of Deep South Texas. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in place for all of Cameron, Willacy,
and Kenedy counties.

In addition to the wind, showers and thunderstorms are expected
to continue across the CWA through the period. The WPC has a
moderate risk of excessive rainfall today and a slight risk
Thursday. Heavy rains could pose a threat of flash flooding
through the period.

Additionally this system will likely enhance the low-level shear
profile this afternoon, presenting a threat for some brief
tornadoes. The SPC has a Marginal Risk today for most of Deep
South Texas

Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to continue
producing hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf,
Rip Currents, and some Moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated
with this system.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The tropical system will continue to impact the region through
the start of the long term period, with rain chances potentially
lingering into the weekend and early next week. An upper level
high pressure system centered over Texas and the Southern Plains
will continue to support easterly to southeasterly winds over Deep
South Texas, potentially funneling additional tropical moisture
into the region through the period.

Beach conditions will likely improve over the weekend as seas
begin to diminish in the wake of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through the period as
increased tropical moisture moves into the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue to impact all three TAF sites
through the period, with areal coverage increasing through the
morning and early afternoon. Gusty easterly to northeasterly winds
are expected through the period, with winds possibly approaching
Tropical Storm-Force, especially at BRO and HRL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico is forecast
to move slowly westward and strengthen to a Tropical Storm before
making landfall in Mexico. A large wind field extending to the
north of this system will likely support high seas as well as the
potential for Tropical Storm Force winds. Winds and seas are
expected to improve over the weekend, with light to moderate winds
and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in place for the Laguna Madre
and Coastal Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             88  81  89  80 / 100 100 100  80
HARLINGEN               86  78  89  76 / 100 100 100  80
MCALLEN                 85  80  89  78 / 100 100 100  80
RIO GRANDE CITY         82  78  87  77 / 100 100 100  80
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      86  83  87  83 / 100 100 100  80
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     87  80  89  79 / 100 100 100  80

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355-451-454-
     455.

     Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355-
     451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...60