Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
518 FXUS64 KBRO 180920 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The primary concern for the short term period will be a tropical disturbance that is developing over the Southern Gulf. The latest NHC forecast has this system moving north then westward, strengthening slightly before making landfall in Mexico. This will likely advect deep tropical moisture to the region, bringing the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms starting as early as this morning and continuing through the period. The greatest opportunity for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday night through the end of the period. A large wind field extending to the north of the system could support tropical storm force winds along the Island and Coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for Island and Coastal portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron Counties. Heavier rains tonight and Wednesday could pose a threat for flash flooding, though the bulk of the rain is expected to pass to the north. The WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall over the coastal counties today, and across the CWA on Wednesday. The wind threat associated with this system is expected to decrease as the system moves further inland. Stronger winds and elevated seas are expected to produce hazardous conditions along the area beaches. High Surf, Rip Currents, and some Moderate Coastal Flooding are anticipated with this system. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The tropical system will continue to impact the region through the start of the long term period, with rain chances potentially lingering into the weekend. An upper level high pressure system centered over Texas and the Southern Plains will continue to support easterly to southeasterly winds over Deep South Texas, potentially funneling additional tropical moisture into the region through the period. Beach conditions will likely improve over the weekend as seas begin to diminish in the wake of this system. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight at all three TAF sites. There is increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday morning and afternoon as deep tropical moisture advects in from the Gulf. Some heavier showers or thunderstorms could briefly drop visibilities to MVFR or VFR levels. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop Tuesday evening at BRO and HRL, and persist through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 416 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 A tropical disturbance in the Southern Gulf of Mexico is expected to move slowly northward then westward, making landfall in Mexico. A large wind field extending to the north of this system will likely support high seas as well as the potential for Tropical Storm Force winds. Winds and seas are expected to improve over the weekend, with light to moderate winds and moderate seas continuing through the remainder of the period. A Tropical Storm Warning is in place for the Laguna Madre and Coastal Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 79 89 81 / 80 90 100 100 HARLINGEN 93 76 87 78 / 80 80 100 100 MCALLEN 95 78 86 80 / 70 60 100 100 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 77 84 77 / 40 50 100 100 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 86 83 / 80 90 100 100 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 77 88 80 / 80 90 100 100 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455. Coastal Flood Warning from 1 AM Wednesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455. High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ451-454- 455. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...60-BE LONG TERM....60-BE AVIATION...60