038
FXUS64 KBRO 231931
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
231 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Key Messages:

- Tropical Disturbance off the NE Mexican Coast moves inland
  tonight.
- Rain chances lower as heat builds
-Minor Coastal Flooding and High Risk of Rip Currents through
 Monday.

The latest on Invest 93L. A reconnaissance aircraft investigated
the area of disturbed weather earlier today and found a weak
circulation about 40mi SE of La Pesca, Mexico or 170mi South of
Port Isabel. Latest satellite loops verify this exposed center
east of the Mexican coast with the majority of the convection west
of the center over land. Models show the center moving inland by
sunset and that should end any further development. The
disturbance should weaken considerable later tonight and Monday as
it continues to track west along the southern periphery of the
500mb ridge centered over West Texas.

As for our rainfall chances diurnal convection is forecast due to
plenty of residual moisture from the surface to 700mb. With the
upper ridge becoming well established and subsidence increasing,
coverage of convection is likely to decrease. Deterministic and Hi-
res models as well as the National Blend of Models (NBM) are on the
same page here showing 30-40% over land the remainder of today and
again Monday late morning spread west through the afternoon with
some assistance of the sea breeze.  Convection should wane this
evening/tonight overland and redevelop over the Gulf waters
overnight as instability increases over the water.

Coastal Rip current risk and the minor coastal flooding look to
persist through Monday as an 8 second moderate swell continue to
be directed towards the lower Texas coast due to a long fetch of
easterly winds. Will maintain the coastal flood advisory and the
rip current statement (Currently expires 7 PM Monday) until we see
more substantial decrease in the swell train.

Temperatures look to inch up into the mid 90s with less rain
coverage and more sun peaking through the clouds. Humidity and heat
indices are likely to be elevated Monday afternoon with max "feel
like" temperatures nearing 110 degrees in several locations. Muggy
overnight lows range 75-80 degrees the next few mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The long term forecast for Deep South Texas will feature seasonable
temperatures for late June and fairly limited daily precipitation
chances. The mid/upper level ridge will be centered over West Texas
Tuesday and Wednesday, before gradually shifting toward the Southern
Plains once again heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, low level
southerly flow will maintain elevated humidity across Deep South
Texas, as well as high precipitable water values through the week.
Rain/storm chances will be limited mainly to any showers and
thunderstorms that are able to develop off of the sea breeze each
afternoon on Tuesday and Wednesday, but should be fairly limited.
Deterministic guidance indicates unsettled weather may return
towards the end of the week as a shortwave traverses along the
periphery of the ridge into South Texas. In combination with high
moisture content, this could result in an uptick in precipitation
coverage late this week and into the weekend. There is still some
uncertainty on this potential, and PoPs have been confined to mostly
the 20-50 percent range.

Outside of precipitation chances through the week, the main weather
story in the long term period will be the return of triple-digit
heat indices. Elevated dew points, associated with well established
low level southerly to southeasterly flow, and generally near normal
temperatures will result in heat indices ranging 104 to 111 degrees
degrees each afternoon. The NWS Heat Risk tool indicates a moderate
risk of heat-related illness, which would mainly affect groups
sensitive to heat (children, elderly, chronically ill) and those
spending prolonged periods outdoors without adequate breaks or
hydration. Regardless of the issuance of any heat headlines,
remember to take proper precautions from the heat to prevent any
heat-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Isolated to scattered showers for the remainder of the afternoon
should dissipate to isolated showers overnight. Another round of
isolated to scattered convection is forecast for Monday mid to
late morning but more likely tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise mostly
lower end VFR ceilings with occasional MVFR cigs in an near
showers and during the mid morning hours Monday. Light to moderate
easterly winds 10-15 kts this afternoon drop below 10 knots
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Tonight through Monday Night...The tropical disturbance currently
located 40mi northeast of La Pesca, Mexico or approximately 170mi
S of Port Isabel, TX is expected to move inland over NE Mexico
later this evening or tonight. No further significant development
is anticipated with this system. Light to moderate east to
southeast wind persist through the period with seas steadily
subsiding Monday. The coastal waters can expect slow improvement
as seas and residual swell trend lower the next 24-36 hours.
Surface high pressure over the Gulf will maintain light east to
southeast winds through Monday night.

Tuesday through Sunday...Generally favorable marine conditions
are expected over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as light to
moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas prevail.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through the week, which may result in higher winds and
seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             80  93  79  93 /  40  50  10  20
HARLINGEN               76  94  76  95 /  20  40   0  20
MCALLEN                 78  95  78  95 /  40  40   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         77  94  77  93 /  40  40  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  87  82  87 /  30  40  10  20
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     79  90  78  91 /  20  40   0  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ351-354-355-
     451-454-455.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....22-Garcia
AVIATION...59-GB