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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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671 FXUS64 KBRO 271733 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1233 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 500 mb high pressure, initially centered over New Mexico, will ease east into northern Texas during the period while remaining the dominant feature over the BRO CWFA. However, a weak, inverted, mid-level trough slipping under the ridge, combined with precipitable water values increasing to over two inches, will result in isolated to scattered convection over portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley during the daylight hours, with additional convection over the adjacent coastal waters at night. Temperature-wise, above normal values are anticipated. Heat indices will approach established HEAT ADVISORY criteria today and tomorrow, with the greatest chance for a HEAT ADVISORY progged for Friday. However, time duration and areal coverage may be limiting factors, so for now, will cover the heat indices with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT today and possibly again tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A mid-level ridge will remain over Texas through much of the period, sliding slightly eastward by midweek. A series of mid-level inverted shortwaves will propagate westward along the southern periphery of the 500mb ridge through the weekend and into next week. Energy associated with these shortwaves combined with daytime heating may allow for shower/thunderstorm activity each afternoon. The best opportunity for rainfall during the long term will be on Sunday, with generally a 40 to 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across all of Deep South Texas. Temperatures will remain near normal each day, and heat indices may reach 100-111 degrees in a few isolated locations for a brief period of time, mainly through Saturday. Heat Advisories are not anticipated. Patchy fog will also be possible each morning through the period. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave over the central Carribean that will propagate westward into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. Currently there is a 20 chance of development on this disturbance in the next 7 days. Forecasts continue to show little to no development of this system, but will continue to be monitored closely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. While southeasterly winds are expected to also persist, they should be light for the most part. However some gustier winds are possible towards the later part of the TAF cycle. Model guidance also indicated that showers were possible for BRO, however confidence was not high enough to include them in this TAF package. && .MARINE... Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Today through Friday: Buoy 42020 reported south-southeast winds around 18 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas of 3 feet with a period of 5 seconds at 1:50 CDT/6:50 UTC. Light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas are expected along the Lower Texas Coast through the period with high pressure in control over the western Gulf of Mexico. While Small Craft Advisory is not likely, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be entirely ruled out. Friday night through Tuesday....Onshore flow will continue through the forecast period. Caution conditions are expected through the weekend with winds of 15 to 20 knots. Winds will decrease Sunday night into Monday with favorable conditions through Tuesday. Waves of 2 to 4 feet are expected through the period. Isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms will be possible through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 94 81 94 82 / 40 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 95 78 96 79 / 30 0 20 0 MCALLEN 96 81 97 81 / 20 10 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 79 96 81 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 83 89 84 / 20 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 92 81 / 20 10 20 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...66-Tomaselli LONG TERM....63-KC AVIATION...64-Katz