Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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156 FXUS64 KBRO 141805 CCC AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 822 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Added Brooks, Inland Cameron, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy and Starr Counties to the Heat Advisory initially effective for just Northern and Southern Hidalgo counties as these additional counties also forecast for heat indices to surpass 111 F, potentially as high as 114 F, for at least 2 hours. The Heat Advisory is effective from 1 PM CDT to 5 PM CDT this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Modest ridging will lie over the area in the short term. As well, the surface pressure field will be rather flat. Max temps today will be mainly in the 90s but could touch the century mark this afternoon in a few spots, mainly inland. Afternoon heat index values of 111 to 113 degrees will possible in a few areas due to the interaction of heat with enhanced relative humidity values. The elevated heat index values will be more widespread and prolonged over Hidalgo County today. Thus, a (low end) heat advisory has been issued for a few hours this afternoon. Heat index values may also reach 105 to 110 degrees for a few hours for a few additional spots this afternoon. With better rain chances on Sunday, however, high temps will be slightly lower and there will be a lesser threat for heat advisories. The models have been backing off on the rain threat in the short term. The best chances today will be isolated to scattered and mainly for the mid and upper valley along the Rio Grande. Rain chances will become scattered across the CWA on Sunday as a slug of moisture spreads north over the CWA. SPC places the CWA in the general thunderstorm category through the short term. Overnight low temperatures will be mainly in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. Rip current risk should remain low. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 The long term forecast is a little bit drier than the previous one as the mid-level ridge is expected to have a greater impact on Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. So while there will be plenty of low-level moisture transport with the southeasterly surface winds, there will be a lack of instability to help generate showers and thunderstorms. This does not rule out some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the coast however as the afternoon seabreeze could still produce enough instability for showers and thunderstorms along the coast. With the mid-level ridge taking the center stage of the long term forecast, that will mean that elevated heat indices are going to become the primary concern. While the currently forecasted heat indices are not expected to reach Heat Advisory criteria, further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor them to see if they continue to increase. As of this forecast, a series of Special Weather Statements for elevated heat indices of 108 to 110 will be needed. As for the actual temperatures, the highs are expected to be in mostly the upper 90s each day for the entire region. Meanwhile, the low temperatures for the period are expected to be mostly in the 70s, with a few places climbing into the low 80s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Currently, all TAF sites are experiencing broken VFR skies with a gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze. As the afternoon progresses, skies are anticipated to dissipate to scattered VFR as well as lift, but a scattered MVFR cloud deck is still likely with winds diminishing to a light-to-gentle southeasterly breeze beyond sunset. Have included a PROB30 group for tomorrow morning as skies may build to broken MVFR accompanying possible light rain showers, persisting into the early afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Today through Sunday...We expect light to moderate southeast to south winds and low to moderate seas. Isolated showers and tstorms will be possible across the waters late Saturday night through Sunday. Sunday Night through Friday...Generally favorable conditions are expected Sunday night through Friday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and seas between 1 to 3 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible and could result in elevated winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 91 78 90 / 20 50 30 50 HARLINGEN 76 92 75 92 / 10 40 20 50 MCALLEN 81 96 79 96 / 10 50 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 93 76 94 / 30 60 30 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 81 87 / 20 40 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 90 76 89 / 10 40 30 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ250>255-353. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...54-BHM LONG TERM....64-Katz AVIATION...65-Irish