429
FXUS61 KBTV 171648
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1248 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonable warmth continues through Thursday before a cooling
trend brings temperatures back to around seasonal averages. Low
chances of showers return with a weak frontal passage heading
into the weekend before high pressure returns early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1243 PM EDT Tuesday...No changes for the afternoon
update.

Previous Discussion...No major shifts have occurred in the
expected evolution of the weather pattern over the next 36
hours. High pressure will remain firmly in control keeping
conditions very dry and temperatures above seasonal averages.
The one difference will be an increase in high clouds that will
help knock a couple degrees off the high temperatures; generally
ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s today and Wednesday. Cloud
cover tonight may help keep temperatures a little milder than
recent overnight lows. Morning fog in climatologically favored
locations remains a good bet today and tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 321 AM EDT Tuesday...The pattern remains dry, though
there`s a brief shake up. A weak upper low will briefly meander
overhead bringing some mid-level clouds Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Forecast guidance suggests that there could be
some clouds initially that gradually thin. So the extent of
radiational cooling and fog may not be quite as great, but still
included fog in the typical locations. Overnight lows will
mainly range 50 to 60 still. Despite the upper low, we likely
will not be able to develop much, if any, precipitation due to a
surface low developing well off the Atlantic and advecting low-
level dry air to its north back into our area. Greater cloud
cover and lower thicknesses will yield slightly cooler highs
compared to recent days in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Tuesday...The upper low will continue to
meander through the region into Saturday. Again on Friday, there
is an ever so slight potential for some rain. The GFS forecast
sounding does suggest that a capping inversion is breakable and
there should be some surface based instability, but the air will
remain rather dry. A back door cold front will shift
southwestwards during the day, and that may provide just enough
of a spark. We`re talking 10-20% chances of rain at best despite
this. By Saturday night into Sunday morning, the backdoor cold
front will have swept through and a new dome of high pressure
will establish itself once again. The location of the center of
this new deep layer high is positioned such that we should hold
onto cooler conditions. So we`ll trend back towards seasonal
norms for the latter half of September, which are high
temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s in the day and about 40
to 50 degrees at night. I think I spy an opportunity for rain
sometime for the middle of next week, but we`ll see how good my
sight is. There`s a strong upper trough or upper low poised to
approach James Bay, but that Greenland block is still looking
pretty tough (2-3 standard deviations above normal).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...Calm winds with only high clouds in
place today. Currently widespread SCT-BKN250. More fog
development is expected overnight, similar to the past several
nights. Fog will impact SLK, MPV and EFK. Also think we could
have some fog at MSS.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Neiles