547
FXUS61 KBTV 211910
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
310 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from scattered light rain showers in Vermont`s Northeast
Kingdom this evening, dry weather is expected through the
remainder of the weekend. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler for Sunday and Monday, with highs generally in the upper
60s to lower 70s. Our prolonged stretch of mainly dry weather is
expected to end areawide Tuesday into Wednesday as an upper
level trough approaches from the northern Great Lakes region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Saturday...Western fringe of maritime moisture
plume will continue to affect far nern VT through late
afternoon/early this evening with a few showers expected
(rainfall generally <0.05"). Elsewhere across our region,
a narrow ridge of sfc high pressure is expected to hold in
place overnight and throughout the day Sunday. The mid-level
trough currently across western NY and associated showers are
expected to weaken while encountering the ridge axis across the
North Country.

While showers will end this evening across nern VT, lingering
mid-upper level cloud cover will likely persist. This should
mitigate fog formation across ern VT. Clear skies developing
overnight across the northern Adirondacks should allow for
patchy dense fog formation in nrn NY after midnight and
persisting thru around 13Z Sunday. With light winds, overnight
lows generally in the 40s, except lower 50s in the Champlain and
St. Lawrence Valley areas.

During the day on Sunday, 850-mb temperatures cool 1-2C, so
anticipate highs a few degrees cooler than today...generally
ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will remain
generally below 10 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...We will finish up the weekend dry as we
remain under the influence of upper level ridging and surface high
pressure. However, rain chances will gradually increase from the
west as an upper level trough over the Great Lakes shifts eastward
toward Quebec. This feature will be proceeded by a weak disturbance
approaching ahead of the main upper low. This may be enough to spark
a few showers on Monday, mainly in northern NY as moisture will
become more limited as one heads into VT. Some of this shower
activity could make it into VT overnight Monday night, but chances
remain low at this time given lack of model agreement on eastward
extent of precipitation. Monday`s daytime highs will be seasonable
though a few degrees cooler than on Sunday, generally topping out in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows both Sunday and Monday nights will be
quite similar, with the St Lawrence and Champlain Valley remaining
in the 50s while the higher terrain and much of the rest of VT will
get down into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 309 AM EDT Saturday...Shower chances will increase as we head
into the middle of next week. WHile model consensus shows best
shower chances will be Tuesday into Wednesday as the low pressure to
our west pushes a frontal boundary across our region, there remains
considerable uncertainty as to exactly how the synoptic setup will
evolve with a large upper low potentially cutting off somewhere over
northern New England/Canadian Maritimes while a southern stream
system remains somewhere over the ArkLaTex or mid-Mississippi Valley
regions. So just about every period has at least a slight chance or
low chance of showers through the end of the week. Temperatures will
be cooler but seasonable, with highs in the 60s to around 70F and
lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 18Z Sunday...Mixed VFR skies this aftn with SCT-
BKN070-120 across central/nern VT, generally SCT120-2000 across
the Champlain Valley, and SCT-BKN040-060 in the northern
Adirondacks with localized field of cumulus clouds. An isold -RW
is possible CDA-EFK area of nern VT. Little change through
early evening, and then should see cumulus clouds dissipate.
Overnight, the mid-upper level clouds across central-ern VT
should limit overall extent and intensity of any fog formation.
Mentioned just 5SM BR before sunrise Sunday at MPV with clouds
mitigating radiational fog formation. Should be a different
story in northern NY with dense LIFR fog possible at KSLK,
especially 08-1300Z. Intermittent fog is also possible at KMSS.
Once fog dissipates, should return VFR all areas of the balance
of the daylight hours on Sunday. No significant winds expected
thru the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Banacos