177
FXUS61 KBTV 252338
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
738 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west will spark scattered showers
tonight. Following a period of dry conditions tomorrow, a potent
trough will provide forcing for numerous showers overnight into
Thursday morning. Chilly high pressure will settle in by Thursday
night, then another frontal system will support the return of active
weather on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 734 PM EDT Tuesday...A fairly quiet evening across the
region tonight, with increasing cloud cover ahead of an
approaching upper level shortwave. Outside small tweaks to sky
cover and temperatures to reflect recent observations, no other
changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...A low level jet, weak shortwave trough,
warm front, and precipitable water values up to around 1.60"
will cross the region together tonight, increasing the chance of
precipitation across the forecast area overnight. Most likely
areas to see showers (thunderstorms not likely) will be the
Adirondacks and perhaps the northern Greens. Many other spots
will likely stay dry as forcing along the warm front is not
impressive and convection will be limited in the overnight
hours, not to mention the fairly dry air mass above 700mb. These
elements, however, are likely to cause some breezy conditions
overnight with winds out of the southwest, especially at high
elevations nearest to the low level jet. Total rainfall
overnight will be up to 0.30" at most. With southwesterly
surface flow, the passing warm front, and general cloudiness, we
can expect mild low temperatures in the 60 for most.

Tomorrow will be dry for most of the day, though chances begin
increasing for precipitation in northern New York tomorrow afternoon
along with increasing sky cover ahead of an approaching cold front
and trough. In between the cold front and warm front tomorrow, there
could be breaks of sunshine, allowing temperatures to rise into the
upper 70s and lower 80s. For the system tomorrow night into
Thursday, models are not in good agreement for where the area of
heavy rain will move, unfortunately. Some models have it only
brushing our forecast area to the south and east, bringing the most
rain to areas east of the Greens. Instability continues to look
dismal, leading to mostly showers and rain and a diminished flash
flooding threat. Precipitation amounts will be roughly 0.15-0.50"
with highest amounts in south/central Vermont as well as most of the
Connecticut River Vally. Low temperatures look roughly seasonable in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 316 PM EDT Tuesday...Shortwave trough pulls quickly east on
Thursday with periodic morning showers most focused across eastern
counties ending by afternoon. As the PBL dries and mixes under
modest west/northwesterly flow, skies should trend partly to mostly
sunny by the afternoon with temperatures some 8-10 degrees cooler
than prior Wednesday highs. Overall a pleasant afternoon is in
store.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure then builds back into the
region for Thursday night into Friday with fair and dry weather
expected under a light wind regime and pleasant temperatures. There
could be some patchy fog in favored locales in the pre-dawn hours on
Friday, but mixed signals in the nocturnal boundary layer moisture
profiles and near surface wind speeds preclude including this in the
forecast at this point. The next shortwave trough and accompanying
frontal boundary then affect the region by Saturday into Saturday
night with additional showers. I`ve maintained a slight chance of
thunderstorms with this feature, though low to mid level lapse rates
look poor with ample cloud cover, so any convective activity would
appear to be elevated and non-severe. PWATS do climb into the 1.5 to
2" range along/ahead of the surface trough, so modest precipitation
amounts from 0.50 to 1 inch look reasonable despite the overall lack
of convection. No widespread hydrological issues are expected,
however.

Thereafter, showers look to taper off area wide by Sunday afternoon
with high pressure and mainly dry, seasonably mild weather returning
by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...VFR conditions to prevail for all TAF
sites through 03Z-11Z, when a warm front is expected to cross
the forecast area, bringing ceilings to MVFR levels for some.
Scattered showers are also possible with this warm front, though
they should be light enough to have minimal impacts to
visibility. Used VCSH to show when showers are most likely to
occur.

Winds currently out of the southwest (or variable in some spots)
could have gusts 20-25 knots for the next couple of hours before
decreasing. Winds over the next 24 hours will largely fluctuate
between south and southwest, and could remain sustained 5-10
knots throughout the night tonight. A low level jet passing by
in conjunction with the warm front will provide some low level
wind shear likely 06Z-12Z. Tomorrow during the day, winds may
pick up again out of the west with gusts 15-20 knots.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Storm
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Storm