231
FXUS61 KBTV 260756
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
356 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warm conditions today will give way to a soaking
rain tonight. Cooler, drier air will filter southward on
Thursday, setting the stage for a chillier night. Our pattern of
alternating wet and dry periods will continue for the weekend
as showers become increasingly likely during the day Saturday
into Saturday night. Moderate rainfall amounts are expected with
temperatures remaining seasonable.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...A very active jet stream across
the northern US/southern Canada will continue to push weak
frontal systems across our area through the next 36 hours. In
this period, our flow will be mainly westerly rather than
southerly, which will minimize the heat and humidity needed for
thunderstorms. So as we saw last night, rain during this period
is not expected to be accompanied by thunderstorms. However,
good moisture convergence and large scale upper level divergence
will be capable of producing decent rainfall rates. This
morning there will be a subtle low level boundary approaching
that will help turn surface winds more westerly than southerly
as they currently. It has sparked a cluster of showers with
embedded thunder in southern Ontario, which is moving eastward
towards southern St. Lawrence County. As such, while most areas
should be partly to mostly sunny, a small portion of the region
may see some rain.

The main "storm" for the near term will roll through quickly tonight,
driven by a vigorous upper level shortwave that is currently
over northern Minnesota. It will be steered towards us in the
long wave trough over the eastern US. Late this afternoon, far
northwestern New York is most favored to see some showers out
ahead of the more widespread shower activity, given better
surface convergence ahead of a cold front dropping southward.
This front will sag southward resulting in low level
northwesterly flow across the region while the trough moves
overhead, which is why rain looks highly predictable over the
area with minimal instability. Precipitation chances ramp up to
near 100% between 10 PM and 2 AM, with rain gradually shifting
eastward and out of the area during the early morning hours.
Steadiest and heaviest rain probably will be over our southern
areas, but it is always difficult to pinpoint this type of thing
even in the near term. NBM mean 6 hour precipitation amounts
are generally in the 0.2" to 0.3" range, with 24 hour totals
through 8 AM Thursday of 0.6" to 0.9" at the 75th percentile
looking like a reasonable heaviest amount. So no significant hydrological
impacts are expected.

Tomorrow behind the front and shortwave trough, some shallow, scattered
showers should develop thanks to northwest flow and the
enhanced orographic lift associated with our terrain. As cold
air advection continues to dry us out during the day and mid
level heights rise, forcing for precipitation will wane as skies
trend sunny. High temperatures will be notably cooler than the
last couple of days, roughly 10 degrees below today`s forecast
highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Overall nearly perfect late June wx
expected from Thurs night thru Friday with 1020mb high pres directly
overhead by 12z Friday. Still monitoring the potential for some
patchy valley fog/br btwn 07-11z Friday associated with clear skies,
light bl winds, and lingering low level moisture from recent
rainfall. Still some question with wind profiles as soundings show
10 to 15 knots just off the deck and most areas will be 12 to 18 hrs
removed from rainfall. So have not included in fcst attm. Next
target of opportunity wl be in the low temp department on Friday
morning, as NBM at SLK is calling for 42F, thinking mid/upper 30s is
likely, as latest MAV/MET is 33/36 respectively. Some localized
patchy frost is possible near SLK early Friday morning as the turn
has occurred. Friday continues to look like a classic North Country
Chamber of Commerce type day with plenty of sunshine, comfortable
temps and low humidity. Highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 326 AM EDT Wednesday...Large scale synoptic pattern features
fast/progressively flow aloft acrs the northern CONUS, with several
embedded s/w`s and associated boundaries. This wl result in an
unsettled scenario for the upcoming weekend with intervals of
showers likely both Sat and Sun, but neither day wl be a complete
washout. Sunday looks a bit drier with less areal coverage of
precip, given developing dry layer btwn 850- 500mb, but instability
is slightly better on Sunday, supporting potential for a few
thunderstorms. Profiles on Sat are rather stable looking with deep
layer moisture in place and pw values in the 1.75 to 2.0 by 00z
Sunday. A cool and unsettled day is likely on Saturday with breezy
south/southwest winds, especially SLV/CPV. Based on model agreement,
confidence is increasing of many areas experiencing a wetting
rainfall on Sat/Sat night, with greatest potential and highest pops
btwn 00-06z Sat night. Feel threat for flash flooding is <10% attm,
but potential for at least 0.5 inch of qpf in heavier showers is 60
to 70% acrs portions of our cwa on Sat into Sunday, with WPC
maintaining a marginal risk in their latest day 4 ERO.

Highs on Sat look to struggle in the mid 60s mtns to mid 70s warmest
valley locations, given overcast skies and areas of showers. Temps
fall very little Sat night with clouds/precip and southerly winds
prevailing, along with increasing dwpts, anticipate lows 60s to
locally near 70F.

Additional s/w energy and secondary cold frnt feature swings acrs
our cwa on Monday with potential for additional showers, before sfc
high pres with cooler/drier wx returns for the middle of next week.
Temps warm back into the mid 70s to lower 80s for Sunday, with some
breaks in the clouds, but cool back into the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Monday with lows generally upper 40s to near 60F. No long duration
heat waves or widespread hazardous wx is anticipated over the next 4
to 7 days based on our crnt fcst.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected,
except at SLK where ceilings near 3000 feet will lower over the
next few hours. There is about a 40% chance of IFR conditions,
primarily between 09Z and 11Z, so have included a tempo group
there. Otherwise, scattered showers should have minimal
operational impact as they diminish over the next few hours.
Clearing still expected between 12-15z across the area with some
clouds and widespread SHRA rapidly overspreading the airspace
between 00Z and 03Z. Some MVFR conditions associated with any
heavier showers will be possible.

South/southwest winds will shift westerly between 12 and 15Z,
with some gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range expected through
about 21Z, then tend to diminish as they become more
northwesterly, especially in the 03Z to 06Z period.


Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff