521
FXUS61 KBTV 260603
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
203 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west will spark scattered showers
tonight. Following a period of dry conditions tomorrow, a potent
trough will provide forcing for numerous showers overnight into
Thursday morning. Chilly high pressure will settle in by Thursday
night, then another frontal system will support the return of active
weather on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 203 AM EDT Wednesday...Widespread showers that produced a
trace to about 0.15" of rainfall over northern New York and
northern Vermont over the last few hours have shifted into
mainly northeastern Vermont at this hour. Some more isolated
shower activity does linger farther west. Also tracking a small
area of convection just north of Lake Ontario tracking eastward,
which could clip southern portions of our northern New York
counties towards 4 AM. Overall, with this update PoPs were
adjusted to more closely match radar trends. Also made large
changes to hourly temperatures/dew points, as steadier rain
modified the surface conditions such that sharply cooler/more
humid conditions are across the northern half of Vermont
compared to much of Rutland and Windsor counties.

Previous Discussion...A low level jet, weak shortwave trough,
warm front, and precipitable water values up to around 1.60"
will cross the region together tonight, increasing the chance of
precipitation across the forecast area overnight. Most likely
areas to see showers (thunderstorms not likely) will be the
Adirondacks and perhaps the northern Greens. Many other spots
will likely stay dry as forcing along the warm front is not
impressive and convection will be limited in the overnight
hours, not to mention the fairly dry air mass above 700mb. These
elements, however, are likely to cause some breezy conditions
overnight with winds out of the southwest, especially at high
elevations nearest to the low level jet. Total rainfall
overnight will be up to 0.30" at most. With southwesterly
surface flow, the passing warm front, and general cloudiness, we
can expect mild low temperatures in the 60 for most.

Tomorrow will be dry for most of the day, though chances begin
increasing for precipitation in northern New York tomorrow afternoon
along with increasing sky cover ahead of an approaching cold front
and trough. In between the cold front and warm front tomorrow, there
could be breaks of sunshine, allowing temperatures to rise into the
upper 70s and lower 80s. For the system tomorrow night into
Thursday, models are not in good agreement for where the area of
heavy rain will move, unfortunately. Some models have it only
brushing our forecast area to the south and east, bringing the most
rain to areas east of the Greens. Instability continues to look
dismal, leading to mostly showers and rain and a diminished flash
flooding threat. Precipitation amounts will be roughly 0.15-0.50"
with highest amounts in south/central Vermont as well as most of the
Connecticut River Vally. Low temperatures look roughly seasonable in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 316 PM EDT Tuesday...Shortwave trough pulls quickly east on
Thursday with periodic morning showers most focused across eastern
counties ending by afternoon. As the PBL dries and mixes under
modest west/northwesterly flow, skies should trend partly to mostly
sunny by the afternoon with temperatures some 8-10 degrees cooler
than prior Wednesday highs. Overall a pleasant afternoon is in
store.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Tuesday...High pressure then builds back into the
region for Thursday night into Friday with fair and dry weather
expected under a light wind regime and pleasant temperatures. There
could be some patchy fog in favored locales in the pre-dawn hours on
Friday, but mixed signals in the nocturnal boundary layer moisture
profiles and near surface wind speeds preclude including this in the
forecast at this point. The next shortwave trough and accompanying
frontal boundary then affect the region by Saturday into Saturday
night with additional showers. I`ve maintained a slight chance of
thunderstorms with this feature, though low to mid level lapse rates
look poor with ample cloud cover, so any convective activity would
appear to be elevated and non-severe. PWATS do climb into the 1.5 to
2" range along/ahead of the surface trough, so modest precipitation
amounts from 0.50 to 1 inch look reasonable despite the overall lack
of convection. No widespread hydrological issues are expected,
however.

Thereafter, showers look to taper off area wide by Sunday afternoon
with high pressure and mainly dry, seasonably mild weather returning
by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected,
except at SLK where ceilings near 3000 feet will lower over the
next few hours. There is about a 40% chance of IFR conditions,
primarily between 09Z and 11Z, so have included a tempo group
there. Otherwise, scattered showers should have minimal
operational impact as they diminish over the next few hours.
Clearing still expected between 12-15z across the area with some
clouds and widespread SHRA rapidly overspreading the airspace
between 00Z and 03Z. Some MVFR conditions associated with any
heavier showers will be possible.

South/southwest winds will shift westerly between 12 and 15Z,
with some gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range expected through
about 21Z, then tend to diminish as they become more
northwesterly, especially in the 03Z to 06Z period.


Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Storm
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Kutikoff/SLW